MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/2)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Milwaukee Brewers opened as -143 road favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The line’s shifted toward Pittsburgh throughout the day, as Milwaukee is now a -120 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 7.5 thus far. The Brewers team total decreased from 5 to 4.1, while the Pirates team total dipped from 3.8 to 3.7.
These teams have been opposites in terms of success with the run line. Milwaukee’s covered the run line in 54.9% of their games, while Pittsburgh’s covered it in only 43.8% of theirs. The Pirates have struggled at home, as well, where they own an 18-20 run line record this season. The Brewers, on the other hand, have found tremendous success on the road, posting a 23-15 road run line record in 2021.
Milwaukee’s relatively neutral in terms of the game total, finding the over in 51.3% of their games. Pittsburgh leans heavily toward the under, hitting it in 53.3% of their contests. The Pirates do own a 19-18-1 over/under record at home this season. The Brewers bring a 16-21-1 road over/under record into this game.
There are multiple outstanding bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Adrian Houser’s strikeout total is set at 3.5 tonight. He owns a 4.17 Karma Projection, giving the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Houser’s struggled with strikeouts throughout the season, posting 18.6% strikeout and 7.4% swinging-strike rates. His K/9 sits at only 7.14 in 2021. Through 15 games (14 starts), Houser owns 60 strikeouts over 75.2 innings. He’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 8 of those 15 games, as well.
Houser gets an interesting matchup against Pittsburgh. They aren’t a great offense, but they also don’t strike out at a high rate. Regardless, Houser should be able to pitch deep into this game, giving him ample opportunities to hit the over.
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