MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/3)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Angels opened as -190 home favorites against the Baltimore Orioles. The line’s widened throughout the day, as Los Angeles is now a -205 favorite. The game total opened at 9.5 runs but hasn’t moved thus far. The Orioles team total decreased from 3.7 to 3.5, while the Angels team total increased from 6.2 to 6.4.
Both of these teams have struggled in terms of the run line this season. Baltimore’s covered the run line in only 43.9% of their games, while Los Angeles has covered it in 44.4% of their contests. The Angels have struggled at home, as well, where they own an 18-23 run line record this season. The Orioles have been better on the road, posting a 22-22 road run line record in 2021.
Each of these two teams has found the over more often than not this season. Baltimore’s hit the over in 51.9% of their games, while Los Angeles’ found the over in 61.7% of their contests. At home, the Angels own a league-best 28-13 over/under record. The Orioles enter this game with a 19-23-2 road over/under record, though.
This game features a few solid bets, according to our Prop Predictor. Cedric Mullins’ hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He owns a 1.12 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Mullins has found plenty of success this season, posting a .317 average thus far. He boasts 98 hits through only 80 games. Mullins also owns a .342 average with 13 hits over his last 10 games. Overall, he’s recorded at least 1 hit in 7 of those 10 games.
Mullins gets an interesting matchup against Alex Cobb tonight. Cobb’s thrown well, holding left-handed batters to only a .207 average thus far. He’s due for some regression against lefties, though. Mullins will also leadoff for Baltimore, giving him ample opportunities to record a hit.
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