MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/5)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Angels opened as -115 home favorites against the Boston Red Sox. The line’s flipped throughout the day, though, as Boston is now a -118 favorite. The game total opened at 10 runs, dropping to 9.5 thus far. Overall, the Red Sox own a team total of 5.1, while the Angels’ team total dipped from 5.3 to 4.8.
These teams have been opposites in terms of the run line this season. Boston’s covered it in 56.5% of their games thus far, while Los Angeles’ covered the run line in only 44.6% of theirs. The Angels have struggled at home this season, where they own a 19-24 run line record. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are one of the best road teams in the league, posting a 26-15 road run line record in 2021.
Boston’s been relatively neutral with the game total this season, hitting the over in 48.2% of their games. Los Angeles leans heavily toward the over, finding it in 61.5% of their contests. The Angels also own a league-best 29-14 home over/under record in 2021. With that being said, the Red Sox enter this game with a 19-22 road over/under record.
Our Prop Predictors likes several bets in this game with one standing above the rest. Martin Perez’s strikeout total is set at only 3.5 tonight. He owns a 4.1 Karma Projection, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Perez has found success this season, recording a career-high 18.7% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.4% swinging-strike rate. He’s recorded 62 strikeouts over 75.2 innings through 16 starts in 2021. Perez also owns 34 strikeouts over 47 innings in his last 10 games. Overall, he’s recorded 4+ strikeouts in 5 of those 10 games.
Perez is in a difficult matchup against Los Angeles, who doesn’t strike out at a high rate. With that being said, he’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 8 of 11 games where he threw 5+ innings. Although he’s risky, our Prop Predictor prefers his over.
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