MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/6)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New York Mets opened as -275 home favorites against the Milwaukee Brewers. The odds have shifted slightly toward Milwaukee, as New York is now a -265 favorite. The game total opened at 6.5 runs, increasing to 7 throughout the day. The Brewers team total moved from 2 to 2.2, while the Mets team total jumped from 4.8 to 5.1.
Milwaukee’s found success in terms of the run line, covering it in 54.6% of their games this season. New York hasn’t found as much success, covering the run line in only 46.9% of their contests. The Mets enter this game with a 17-19 home run line record. The Brewers have looked great on the road, where they own a 25-17 run line record in 2021.
Milwaukee’s been relatively neutral with the game total this season, hitting the over in 51.2% of their games. New York leans heavily toward the under in their contests, finding it in 55.3% of the time this season. The Mets also own a league-best 9-25-1 home over/under record. The Brewers also bring an 18-23-1 road over/under record into this game.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Brett Anderson’s strikeout total is set at only 2.5 tonight, but he owns a 3.31 Karma Projection. The difference gives the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Anderson’s struggled with strikeouts this season, recording 14.5% strikeout and 5.6% swinging-strike rates. He only owns a 5.81 K/9 in 2021. Anderson’s recorded 31 strikeouts over 48 innings through 12 starts. He’s posted 3+ strikeouts in 7 of those 12 games.
Anderson gets an interesting matchup against New York, who doesn’t strike out at a high rate. With that being said, this total is set extremely low, and Anderson can find success if he can throw deeper into this game. Anderson’s over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game.
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