MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/10)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Houston Astros opened as -114 home favorites against the New York Yankees. The line’s flipped throughout the day, as New York is now a -112 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, decreasing to 8 since this morning. The Yankees team total dipped from 4.3 to 4.2, while the Astros team total dropped from 4.5 to 4.1.
New York’s been one of the worst teams in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering it in only 39.1% of their games this season. Houston’s found more success, covering the run line in 51.7% of their contests. The Astros also own a 23-23 home run line record in 2021. The Yankees bring an 18-24 road run line record into this game, as well.
These teams have been opposites in terms of the game total in 2021. Houston’s hit the over in 58.6% of their games, while New York’s found the under in 54.1% of their contests. The Astros have recorded a 27-19 home over/under record this season. The Yankees enter this game with a 19-23 road over/under record.
There are several bets that our Prop Predictor grades out well in this game. Michael Brantley’s hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He boats a 1.28 Karma Projection tonight, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Brantley’s looked outstanding this season, recording a .327 average through 67 games. He boasts 90 hits in those contests, as well. Brantley’s been struggling in recent games, posting a .186 average with 8 hits over his last 10 games. He’s posted at least 1 hit in 6 of those 10 contests.
Brantley gets a tough matchup against Gerrit Cole tonight. He’s allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .229 average this season. Still, Brantley’s hitting second in the Houston lineup, giving him ample opportunities to find a hit in this game.
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