MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/16)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Chicago Cubs opened as -148 road favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The odds have shifted slightly throughout the day, as Chicago is now a -151 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Cubs boast a team total of 5.4 runs, while the Diamondbacks team total dipped from 4.0 to 3.9.
Chicago’s performed well in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 54.4% of their games. Arizona hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 46.7% of their contests. The Diamondbacks are significantly better at home, though, where they own a 23-20 run line record in 2021. The Cubs enter this game with a 25-20 road run line record.
These teams have been opposites in terms of the game total this season. Chicago’s hit the under in 57.6% of their games, while Arizona’s found the over in 54.9% of their contests. At home, the Diamondbacks have recorded a 26-16-1 over/under record this season. The Cubs bring a league-low 16-26-3 over/under record into this game, though.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. One stands above the rest, though. Madison Bumgarner’s strikeout total is set at only 4.5 tonight. He owns a 5.31 Karma Projection, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bumgarner’s seen mixed results this season, posting 24% strikeout and 10.3% swinging-strike rates. Those rates are drastically higher than in his limited innings in 2020. Overall, Bumgarner owns 62 strikeouts over 59.2 innings through 12 starts. He’s posted 5+ strikeouts in 8 of those 12 games.
Bumgarner gets a great matchup against Chicago, who struggled with strikeouts prior to the break. The Arizona pitcher has struggled in recent games, although he’s in a matchup he can take advantage of tonight.
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