MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/17)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Boston Red Sox opened as -115 road favorites against the New York Yankees. The line’s flipped throughout the day, as New York is now a -135 favorite. The game total dropped from 8.5 runs to 8 thus far. The Red Sox team total decreased from 4.5 to 3.7, while the Yankees total increased from 4.4 to 4.6.
Boston’s looked outstanding in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 54.4% of their games. New York’s been one of the worst teams in the MLB, covering the run line in only 38.9% of their contests. The Yankees have been even worse at home, where they own a 16-30 run line record in 2021. The Red Sox, on the other hand, bring a 27-18 road run line record into this game.
Both of these teams have found the under more often than not this season. Boston’s hit it in 52.8% of their games, while New York’s found it in 54.5% of theirs. At home, the Yankees own a 20-24-2 over/under record. The Red Sox enter this game with a 19-25-1 road over/under record.
Our Prop Predictor likes a few bets in this game. Xander Bogaerts’ hit total is set at 0.5 with heavy odds on the over. He owns a 1.09 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bogaerts has looked outstanding this season, posting a .318 average thus far. He owns 103 hits in only 86 games for Boston. Bogaerts has cooled off in recent games, though, posting a .231 average with 9 hits over his last 10 games. He owns at least 1 hit in 6 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5.
Bogaerts gets a tough matchup against Gerrit Cole and the New York bullpen. Cole’s held right-handed batters to a .192 average this season, although he’s been struggling a bit in recent games. Bogaerts is one of the top bats for Boston, and his over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the season.
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