MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/19)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened as -170 home favorites against the San Francisco Giants. The line’s shifted drastically toward San Francisco throughout the day, as Los Angeles is now a -135 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 8 thus far. The Giants team total increased from 3.4 to 3.7, while the Dodgers team total decreased from 5.4 to 4.6.
San Francisco’s the best team in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering it in a league-high 63% of their games. Los Angeles hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in 50% of their contests. The Dodgers are significantly better at home, where they own a 24-20 run line record this season. Still, the Giants enter this game with a 32-17 road run line record.
San Francisco slightly favors the under in their games, finding it in 52.2% of their contests in 2021. Los Angeles has been neutral in terms of the game total this season, finding the over and under 50% of the time, respectively. The Dodgers lean slightly toward the under at home, posting a 20-21-2 home over/under record in 2021. The Giants bring a 21-27-1 road over/under record into this game, as well.
Our Prop Predictor likes several bets in this game with one standing above the rest. Justin Turner’s hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He owns a 1.27 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Turner’s looked outstanding this season, recording a .304 average thus far. He’s posted 97 hits through 87 games thus far. Turner’s also caught fire in recent games, hitting for a .368 average with 14 hits over his last 10 contests. Overall, he’s recorded at least 1 hit in 8 of his last 10 games.
Turner gets a tough matchup against Kevin Gausman, who’s held right-handed batters to a .132 average this season. With that being said, the Dodgers’ third baseman is an elite hitter. He’ll also see plenty of opportunities to record a hit, as he’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles lineup.
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