MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/20)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Chicago Cubs opened as -115 road favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals. The line’s flipped throughout the day, as St. Louis is now a -115 favorite. The run total increased from 8.5 runs to 9 thus far. Overall, the Cubs team total moved from 4.5 to 4.6, while the Cardinals team total jumped from 4.4 to 4.8.
Both teams have found some success in terms of the run line this season. Chicago’s covered it in 54.3% of their games, while St. Louis has covered the run line in 52.1% of their contests. The Cardinals have been similar at home and on the road, recording a 23-22 home run line record in 2021. The Cubs have performed well on the road, where they own a 27-22 run line record.
Chicago’s been one of the best under teams in the MLB this season, finding the under in 57.3% of their games. St. Louis leans toward the under, as well, hitting it in 51.1% of their contests. The Cardinals also own an 18-23-3 home over/under record. The Cubs own a league-best 18-28-3 road over/under record in 2021, as well.
Our Prop Predictor loves one prop in particular in this game. Trevor Williams’ strikeout total is set at only 3.5 tonight. He boasts a 4.94 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Williams has seen mixed results this season, posting 24% strikeout and 9.9% swinging-strike rates this season. He owns 52 strikeouts over 47.1 innings through 11 games (10 starts). More importantly, Williams’ strikeout rate jumps to 27.5% against right-handed batters this season. He’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 7 of his 10 starts in 2021.
Williams gets a plus matchup against a right-handed heavy St. Louis lineup. He generally doesn’t throw a ton of pitches, although that likely won’t matter at his current total. It’s set too low for this matchup.
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