MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/21)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened as -210 home favorites against the San Francisco Giants. The line’s shifted heavily toward San Francisco throughout the day, as Los Angeles is now only a-155 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. Ultimately, the Giants team total jumped from 3.1 to 3.6, while the Dodgers team total dipped from 5.8 to 5.2.
San Francisco’s been the best team in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering it in 62.8% of their games. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has only covered the run line in 50% of their contests. With that being said, the Dodgers own a 25-21 home run line record this season. The Giants have looked incredible on the road, though, where they boast a 33-18 run line record in 2021.
These teams are slight opposites in terms of the game total. San Francisco’s found the under in 51.1% of their games, while Los Angeles’ hit the over in 51.1% of theirs. The Dodgers also own a 22-21-3 over/under record at home this season. The Giants lean more toward the under on the road, posting a 23-27-1 road over/under record in 2021.
There’s one bet in this game that sticks out significantly more than any other, according to our Prop Predictor. Logan Webb’s strikeout total is set at 4.5 tonight. He boasts a 5.35 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Webb’s seen limited innings in the MLB this season. With that being said, he owns 25.4% strikeout and 11.6% swinging-strike rates in those games. Overall, Webb owns 60 strikeouts over 56 innings through 12 games (11 starts). He’s posted 5+ strikeouts in 6 of those 11 starts.
Webb gets a tough matchup against the Dodgers, who feature a high upside offense. He’s throwing at a high level, though, and there are strikeouts throughout Los Angeles’ lineup. Webb’s over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of this game.
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