MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/22)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Minnesota Twins opened as -135 home favorites against the Los Angeles Angels. The odds have widened slightly throughout the day, as Minnesota is now a -150 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs, increasing to 9.5 thus far. The Angels team total dipped from 4.2 to 4.1, while the Twins team total increased from 5.2 to 5.7.
Both of these teams have struggled in terms of the run line this season. Los Angeles’ covered it in 44.7% of their games, while Minnesota’s covered the run line in a league-low 37.5% of their contests. The Twins have struggled at home, where they own a 17-30 run line record. The Angels have been almost as bad on the road, posting a 19-26 road run line record in 2021.
These teams both favorite the over significantly more than the under in their games. Minnesota (63%) and Los Angeles (59.1%) rank first and second in the MLB in over percentage this season. The Twins also boast a 28-18-1 home over/under record. Surprisingly, the Angels only own a 23-22 road over/under record in 2021.
Our Prop Predictor likes one bet in this game more than the rest. Jose Iglesias’ hit total is set at 0.5 with wide odds on the over. He owns a 1.02 Karma Projection tonight, giving the over a B- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Iglesias has seen mixed results this season, posting a .281 average. He owns 85 hits through 80 games this far. Iglesias’ hitting for a .325 average with 13 hits over his last 10 games, as well. He’s posted at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games.
Iglesias gets a matchup against Kenta Maeda, who’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .270 average this season. He’s only expected to hit eighth in the Los Angeles lineup, although the Angels could find plenty of offensive success, Iglesias included.
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