MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/26)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Minnesota Twins opened as -165 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers. The line’s shifted slightly toward Detroit throughout the day, as Minnesota’s now a -160 favorite. The game total opened at 9.5 runs, increasing to 10 thus far. Overall, the Tigers team total moved from 3.9 to 4.2, while the Twins team total jumped from 5.9 to 6.2.
Minnesota’s been the worst run line team in the MLB, covering it in only 37% of their games this season. Detroit’s found more success, covering the run line in 54.5% of their contests. The Twins have also struggled at home, posting an 18-33 run line record thus far. With that being said, the Tigers have struggled on the road, where they own a 24-27 run line record in 2021.
Minnesota leads the MLB in over percentage, hitting the over in 60.4% of their games. Detroit leans more toward the under in their contests, finding it in 52.1% of their games this season. The Twins only own a 28-22-1 over/under record at home, although it’s still hitting far more often than not. The Tigers also boast a 26-22-3 road over/under record in 2021.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor, with one standing above the rest. Matt Manning’s strikeout total is set at 4.5 tonight. He owns a 2.96 Karma Projection, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Manning’s struggled with strikeouts early in his MLB career, posting 10.5% strikeout and 7.1% swinging-strike rates thus far. Through 28 innings (6 starts), he recorded only a 4.18 K/9. Overall, Manning’s posted 13 strikeouts on the season, throwing more than 5 innings in only 2 of his 6 games. He has yet to record 5+ strikeouts in a start in the MLB.
Although it’s obvious Manning’s strikeout rate will go up as he throws more, there’s no evidence to suggest that it’ll increase this season. He gets a tough matchup against Minnesota, who has the ability to get to pitchers early in games. Manning needs to throw deep in this game to potentially find the over, and that isn’t a likely scenario tonight.
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