MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/27)

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

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The Houston Astros opened as -170 road favorites against the Seattle Mariners. The line’s shifted slightly toward Seattle thus far, as Houston is now a -160 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 8 throughout the day. Overall, the Astros team total decreased from 5.4 to 4.9, while the Mariners team total dipped from 3.4 to 3.3. 

 

Houston’s seen mixed results in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 51.5% of their games. Seattle’s been significantly more successful, covering the run line in 57.4% of their contests. The Mariners have also performed well at home, where they boast a 31-23 run line record. The Astros only own a 24-23 road run line record in 2021. 

 

Both of these teams lean toward the over in their games. Houston’s found the over in 57.6% of their contests, while Seattle’s found it in 52% of theirs this season. With that being said, the Mariners enter this game with a 22-30-2 home over/under record. The Astros boast a 26-19-2 road over/under record in 2021, though. 

 

This game features several bets our Prop Predictor likes with one elite bet. Chris Flexen’s strikeout rate is set at only 3.5 tonight. He boasts a 4.28 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here. 

 

Flexen’s struggled with strikeouts this season, recording 15.6% strikeout and 8.4% swinging-strike rates. He owns only a 5.68 K/9 thus far. Overall, Flexen’s posted 66 strikeouts over 104.2 innings through 18 starts. He’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 8 of his 18 games this season. 

 

Flexen gets a tough matchup against Houston, although he’ll benefit from throwing in Seattle tonight. Although they don’t strike out at the highest rate, Flexen gets his strikeout upside from throwing deep into games rather than his swing-and-miss ability. He’s a risky option, but our Prop Predictor loves his over in this game. 

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