MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/28)
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MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/28)

Justin Bales
07-28-2021

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles



The Baltimore Orioles opened as -130 home favorites against the Miami Marlins. The line hasn’t moved thus far. The game total opened at 9.5 runs, increasing to 10 throughout the day. The Marlins team total moved from 4.5 to 4.8, while the Orioles team total jumped from 5.4 to 5.7. 

 

These teams have been opposites in terms of the run line this season. Miami’s covered it in 54% of their games, while Baltimore’s covered the run line in only 44.4% of their contests. The Orioles have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 17-30 run line record. The Marlins, on the other hand, have posted a 28-25 road run line record in 2021. 

 

Miami’s found the under more often than not this season, hitting it in 54.3% of their games. Baltimore’s been the opposite, finding the over in 54.2% of their contests thus far. At home, the Orioles boast a 28-18-1 over/under record, which is one of the best in the league. The Marlins have recorded a 23-27-4 road over/under record in 2021. 

 

This game features several solid bets, according to our Prop Predictor. Cedric Mullins’ hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He owns a 1.16 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here

 

Mullins has enjoyed an elite season, posting a .319 average thus far. He owns 119 hits over 97 games. Mullins has also caught fire in recent games, posting a .368 average with 14 hits over his last 10 contests. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 8 of those 10 games, as well. 

 

Mullins gets a plus matchup against Jordan Holloway, who’s held left-handed batters to a .185 average this season. With that being said, he’s thrown limited innings and is due for regression. Mullins is expected to lead off for Baltimore, and he’ll see plenty of opportunities to record a hit in this game. 


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