MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/29)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Milwaukee Brewers opened as -195 road favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The odds have shifted ever so slightly toward Pittsburgh, as Milwaukee is now a -190 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 8 throughout the day. The Brewers team total decreased from 5.6 to 5.2, while the Pirates team total dipped from 3.2 to 3.1.
Milwaukee’s found plenty of success in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 55.9% of their games. Pittsburgh hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 44.5% of their contests. The Pirates are better at home, though, where they own a 24-25 run line record. With that being said, the Brewers boast a 32-17 road run line record in 2021.
Both of these teams are relatively neutral in terms of the game total. Milwaukee’s found the under in 50.5% of their games this season, while Pittsburgh’s found the over in 51.6% of theirs. The Pirates do possess a 26-21-2 home over/under record in 2021, though. The Brewers have recorded a 22-24-2 road over/under record.
Our Prop Predictor likes a few bets in this game with one standing above the rest. Freddy Peralta’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 tonight. He owns a 7.67 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Peralta’s found plenty of strikeout success this season, posting 35% strikeout and 14.4% swinging-strike rates. He boasts a 12.35 K/9 thus far. Overall, he owns 140 strikeouts through 102 innings over 19 games (18 starts). He’s recorded 7+ strikeouts in 14 of those 18 starts.
Peralta gets an interesting matchup against Pittsburgh. They don’t strike out at a high rate, but they also don’t boast a good offense. Peralta should be able to throw deep into this game, giving him ample opportunities to record strikeouts.
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