MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/30)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Angels opened as -120 home favorites against the Oakland A’s. The line’s flipped throughout the day, though, as Oakland is now a -115 favorite. The game total opened at 8 runs, increasing to 8.5 thus far. The A’s team total jumped from 4 to 4.5, while the Angels team total stayed at 4.4.
Oakland’s been successful in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 54.8% of their games. Los Angeles hasn’t been nearly as successful, covering the run line in only 45.1% of their games thus far. The Angels have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 24-29 run line record. Oakland, on the other hand, boasts a 32-18 road run line record in 2021.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total this season. Oakland’s hit the under in 53.9% of their games, while Los Angeles’ found the over in 57.4% of theirs. At home, the Angels boast a league-best 35-17-1 over/under record. The A’s only own a 20-28-2 road over/under record in 2021.
This game features a few solid bets, according to our Prop Predictor. Patrick Sandoval’s strikeout total is set at 7.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of only 5.57, though, giving the under an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Sandoval’s looked outstanding this season, posting 27.9% strikeout and 16.3% swinging-strike rates. He’s recorded a 10.17 K/9 thus far. Sandoval owns 81 strikeouts through 71.2 innings over 14 games (11 starts). He’s posted 7 or fewer strikeouts in 7 of those 11 starts.
Sandoval gets a plus matchup against Oakland, who’s been striking out at a relatively high rate in recent games. With that being said, he’ll have to throw deep into this game to find the over. Sandoval’s posted 4 and 3 strikeouts in his 2 matchups against Oakland this season, and our Prop Predictor loves the under once again.
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