MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/31)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Washington Nationals opened as small -120 home favorites against the Chicago Cubs. The odds widened slightly throughout the day, as Washington’s now a -125 favorite. The game total opened at 8 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Cubs team total dipped from 4 to 3.9, while the Nationals team total hasn’t shifted from 4.4.
Chicago’s performed well in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 54.3% of their games this season. Washington hasn’t been nearly as successful, covering the run line in 44.7% of their contests. The Nationals have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 23-30 run line record. The Cubs boast a 31-22 road run line record in 2021.
Both of these teams have consistently found the under in their games this season. Chicago and Washington rank second (56.6%) and first (62.6%) in the MLB in under percentage, respectively. The Nationals have recorded a 17-35-1 home over/under record in 2021, while the Cubs own a league-best 19-31-3 road over/under record.
Kyle Hendricks’ strikeout total is set at only 3.5 tonight with heavy juice on the over. He boasts a 4.73 Karma Projection in this matchup, giving the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Hendricks has struggled with strikeouts throughout the season, posting 17.5% strikeout and 8.9% swinging-strike rates. He only owns a 6.73 K/9 in 2021. Hendricks recorded 91 strikeouts over 121.2 innings through 21 starts. He’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 15 of his 21 starts this season.
Hendricks gets an interesting matchup against Washington, who traded several starters at the trade deadline. He’ll likely need to throw relatively deep into this game to find the over, but he should be able to in such a good matchup.
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