Cap's Season-Long NFL Player Props - Passing Touchdowns
Welcome back, Karma Nation! I'll be highlighting three season-long NFL player props that I think are worthwhile for the upcoming 2021 season. This week's player props are season-long TD over/under. First up is three season-long passing TD player props. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in.
I get it. The Lions offense is going to be bad and the sportsbooks reflect this in Jared Goff's passing TD prop. Goff's passing TD totals over the last four seasons are 28, 32, 22, and 20. In 2020, Goff only played 15 games. The 20.5 O/U line makes sense given his totals last season, but I believe Goff is a lock to throw for at least 21 TDs this year. In a 17-game season, Goff only needs to average 1.2 passing TDs per game. Over the past four seasons, Goff has averaged 1.9, 2, 1.4, and 1.33 passing TDs per game. So, Goff hitting 1.2 TDs per game should be easy, especially considering the Detroit Lions should be trailing in most games. A negative game script due to an anemic defense should lead to at least 21 passing TDs. I'm taking the over on this one before they move the O/U line higher.
Bet 1.10 units on Jared Goff over 20.5 passing touchdowns (-110) to win 1 unit
The odds on Jalen Hurts throwing for over 20.5 TDs on the season are slightly better than Goff's and I like Hurts a tad more because I expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be better than the Lions. While Hurts is a rushing quarterback, that does not mean he can't throw TDs. In the three and a half games Hurts started last season, he was throwing 1.7 TDs per game on average. If you look at his TD rate on passes completed, it was at 4.1%, which is right around the league average. If you project Hurts' passing TD average per game throughout the new 17-game season, he would be on pace to throw for 29 TDs. While I don't think we should project exactly off a small sample size like last year, I do believe that even with some per-game TD regression Hurts can still hit at least 21 passing TDs. The Eagles defense is by no means elite, so Hurts should be in negative game scripts frequently leading to a higher passing volume. Take the over on Hurts at these odds. The only way I think he won't hit this is if he's benched--which I don't project happening.
Bet 1.05 units on Jalen Hurts over 20.5 passing touchdowns (-105) to win 1 unit
According to the sportsbooks, Sam Darnold is still wearing the stink of the New York Jets and Adam Gase. While Darnold hasn't been good up to this point in his career, I think he has a much better supporting cast and offensive coordinator in Carolina that will lead to at least 24 passing TDs on the season. Over the past three seasons, Darnold has averaged 1.3, 1.5 and 1.3 passing TDs per game. To hit 24 passing TDs over a 17-game season, Darnold needs to throw for 1.4 passing TDs per game. This bet is riskier than the other two I mentioned but also doubles your money if it hits. Part of why I believe Darnold can hit the over on this line is due to Christian McCaffrey returning to full health. Over the past three seasons, McCaffrey has had 5, 6 and 4 receiving TDs. McCaffrey's pass-catching skill set raises Darnold's TD floor, as does wide receivers Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and former LSU Tiger, Terrace Marshall--who should be a red zone threat for Darnold Day one.
Bet 1 unit on Sam Darnold over 23.5 passing touchdowns (+100) to win 2 units
I hope you enjoyed these props! Check back here throughout the season for more of my picks and find the other Karma Nation staff's picks by signing up for our Premium package. If you need education on sports betting, check out our how-to bet articles!