Bales' Best Bet - New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
Tylor Megill and the New York Mets face off against Jesus Luzardo and the Miami Marlins tonight. The Mets rookie is enjoying an outstanding after dominating the minor leagues since 2018. Luzardo hasn’t performed as well this season, although he’ll be making his first start for Miami after being traded by the Oakland A’s at the deadline.
In this article, I’ll offer my favorite bet in this game. Remember to always shop for the best lines possible, using the BetKarma Props Comparison and Odds Comparison pages. If you aren’t sure which sportsbooks are available in your state, check out our Where to Bet page.
Tylor Megill and the Mets opened as -150 favorite against Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins tonight. The line hasn’t seen much movement at this point with the game total sticking at 7 runs throughout the day. As you can see on our Trends page, the Mets feature an implied team total of 4.2 runs, while the Marlins implied team total sits at only 3 runs.
I’ll be attacking the Miami offense with Megill tonight. His strikeout prop is set at 5.5 on all available books with the best odds coming in at +100 on the FanDuel Sportsbook tonight. The different lines can be found on our previously mentioned Props Comparison page, which is pictured below.
Megill’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts early in his MLB career. He boasts 27.1% strikeout and 11% swinging-strike rates through 7 starts. He’s likely to be able to find sustained success in the Majors after recording strikeout and swinging-strike rates north of 30% and 15% at times in the MiLB.
Overall, Megill owns 39 strikeouts through 35.1 innings this season. He’s posted a 9.93 K/9 thus far. He’s posted 6+ strikeouts in 4 of those 7 starts. More importantly, Megill figured out early-career control issues in recent games. He walked 9 batters over his first 4 starts (18 innings). Over his last 3 games (17.1 innings), he’s walked only 2 batters. Megill’s control has allowed him to pitch deeper into games, as his last 3 starts have been his longest 3 of the season even though his pitch count hasn’t increased.
He gets an elite matchup against Miami, who’s struggled in recent games. They own the fourth-lowest team wOBA (0.292) over the last 14 days on this slate. The Marlins don’t strike out at an extremely high rate, as it sits at only 22.6% over the last 14 days. With that being said, Megill is in an interesting spot because of their projected lineup.
Megill’s strikeout rate dips to 21.7% on the road, but the sample size is far too limited to even consider. In the second start of his career, he struck out 8 Braves in Atlanta in only 5 innings. The rate is dropped drastically when he recorded only 2 strikeouts over 6 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Instead, we can look at his opponents' handedness for a large sample size. Megill’s strikeout rate jumps to 29.3% against right-handed batters. Miami’s expected to utilize 6 right-handed batters with 2 lefties and their pitcher in their lineup tonight. Megill will see ample opportunities to find strikeouts in this game.
He’s a pitcher that should be able to go deeper into this game because of the lack of threats in Miami’s lineup and his impressive control in recent starts.
Our Prop Predictor also loves the over in this game, as Megill’s projected for 6.48 strikeouts.
Bet 1 unit on Tylor Megill over 5.5 strikeouts (+100) to win 1 unit on FanDuel Sportsbook