Bales' Best Bet - Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies
Alec Mills and the Chicago Cubs will travel to Coors Field to face off against Jon Gray and the Colorado Rockies. This game features surprisingly similar metrics from both teams. Mills and Gray both have similar advanced metrics, while the Cubs bullpen is throwing slightly worse than the Rockies. In terms of offense, Colorado’s has been slightly better in wOBA over the last 14 days, although they’re also nearly identical.
In a matchup between two teams that were recently sellers at the deadline, we can still find value. In this article, I’ll outline my favorite bet in a contest of two teams focused more on the future than the 2021 playoffs.
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Alec Mills and the Cubs opened as +130 underdogs against the Colorado Rockies in a game set at 10.5 runs. The odds have widened, as they are now +155 underdogs. The game total also increased to 11 throughout the day. You can see the movement on our Trends page, showing the Rockies boast the highest implied team total of the slate at 7.1 runs.
I’m backing a relatively poor pitcher in Mills tonight. Although the matchup is difficult overall, his strikeout rate is set entirely too low. It’s currently set at 3.5 with +100 odds on the over on DraftKings Sportsbook. Make sure to utilize our Props Comparison page to find the best odds, as PointsBet and BetMGM feature -120 and -115 odds on the over, respectively.
Mills’ seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts this season. He enters this game with 16.8% strikeout and 6.9% swinging-strike rates. He’s only been a starter for a portion of the season, though, increasing his strikeout rate to 17.2% in those games. He also lowered his BB/9, HR/9, and xFIP as a starter, suggesting he’s finding more success when taking the mound to start rather than in relief.
Overall, Mills owns 47 strikeouts over 63.1 innings through 21 games (9 starts). He’s posted 32 strikeouts over 42.2 innings in 9 starts, as well. Mills only posted 1 strikeout over his last 2 starts (11 innings), but he recorded 20 strikeouts over his 3 starts (15.1 innings) prior to that.
Mills’ strikeout rates have been relatively unpredictable as a whole, although they increase drastically on the road. He boasts a 22.7% strikeout rate with a 9.49 K/9 on the road this season compared to a 10.9% strikeout rate and a 4.09 K/9 at home.
Most importantly, Mills gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight. They’ve been playing well, posting a .333 wOBA over the last 14 days. They also feature the highest implied team total on the slate, which is concerning. With that being said, they’ve recorded a 24.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days, as well.
There are plenty of strikeouts available in the Colorado offense tonight. They’re expected to utilize batters from both sides of the plate, although that doesn’t matter a ton to Mills. His strikeout rate only increases 2.3% against right-handed batters. The Rockies are expected to utilize 5 right-handed batters, including Jon Gray, tonight.
Mills has already flashed strikeout potential, recording 6, 5, and 9 against the St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, and Cincinnati Reds, respectively. He doesn’t necessarily need to throw deep into this game to find the over on such a low total tonight.
Although I don’t expect Mills to shut down the Rockies’ offense by any means, I love his over at even odds.
Bet 1 unit on Alec Mills over 3.5 strikeouts (+100) to win 1 unit on DraftKings Sportsbook