Bales' Best Bet - Milwaukee Brewers vs Chciago Cubs
Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers will travel to Wrigley Field to take on Alec Mills and the Chicago Cubs. Milwaukee’s been playing better in most categories, as their team wOBA sits well above Chicago’s over the last 14 days. The Cubs also feature a strikeout rate nearly 10% higher than the Brewers over that span. Furthermore, the Milwaukee bullpen’s xFIP sits well below Chicago’s over the last 30 days.
This is all represented by the -190 odds in favor of Milwaukee in this game. The odds are unsurprising, as the Brewers sit atop the NL Central by 5 games over the Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs sit 14.5 games back and traded several starters at the deadline, suggesting a rebuild. Ultimately, their new offense hasn’t found success, giving us a great betting opportunity in this game.
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Freddy Peralta and the Brewers opened as -180 road favorites against Alec Mills and the Cubs. The odds have widened slightly, as Milwaukee’s now a -190 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved throughout the day. This movement is available on our Trends page and shows Chicago owning an implied team total of only 3.5 runs.
I’m backing one of the top pitchers in the MLB in Peralta tonight. He’s a player that can take advantage of this matchup, making his strikeout total a bit low tonight. It’s currently set at 7.5 with -105 odds on the over on multiple sportsbooks. You can utilize our Props Comparison page to find the best odds, as the over sits at -112 on the FanDuel Sportsbook tonight.
Peralta’s been an elite strikeout option throughout the 2021 season. Through 21 games (20 starts), he boasts 34.5% strikeout and 14.2% swinging-strike rates. Peralta owns a 12.2 K/9 this season.
He’s posted 154 strikeouts through 114 innings over those 21 games (20 starts). Peralta’s struggled a bit in recent games, averaging only 6.4 strikeouts per game over his last 5 starts. With that being said, he flashed in his last game, recording 9 strikeouts over 6 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s posted 8+ strikeouts in 9 of his 20 starts in 2021.
Peralta’s seen similar strikeout rates at home and on the road. They sit at 34.4% and 34.8% in those situations. The bigger splits come with the handedness of his opponents. Peralta owns a 29.1% strikeout rate against left-handed batters. It increases to a ridiculous 41.2% against righties.
The most important aspect of this bet is the matchup. Peralta will face off against the Cubs, who he’s looked elite against on the season. He boasts 33 strikeouts through 21 innings over 4 starts against Chicago this season. His individual totals against the Cubs are 8, 10, 7, and 8.
The Cubs are tentatively expected to utilize five right-handed batters (including Alec Mils) tonight. They traded away several starters at the deadline, leaving backups to play the remainder of the season. Since then, they lead the MLB with a ridiculous 30% strikeout rate.
Peralta owns tremendous strikeout potential against any team in the MLB, even with his recent struggles. He gets arguably the best possible matchup tonight, though, as there are plenty of strikeouts available in the Chicago offense. The only major concern is the wind blowing out around 10 mph, although I favor Peralta’s electric stuff over that against a bad offense.
Bet 1.05 units on Freddy Peralta over 7.5 strikeouts (-105) to win 1 unit on DraftKings Sportsbook