Cap's Season-Long NFL Player Props - Receiving Yards
Welcome back, Karma Nation! Let's take a look at three season-long NFL player props that I think are worthwhile for the upcoming 2021 season. This week's player props are season-long receiving yardage over/under. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets, make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in.
The New York Jets are an entirely different team than they were the last off-season. The defense is still a work in progress, so the Jets are a team that should be in negative game scripts more than most NFL franchises. With big-armed rookie QB Zach Wilson leading the charge, Elijah Moore should have a good chance to go over 705.5 receiving yards in his rookie year. I think this is a low O/U line for someone who is reportedly dominating training camp. While Moore is a rookie, he could very well end up as the WR1 for this team by the end of the season. He's that talented. Moore only needs to average 41.52 receiving yards per game to hit the over, a per-game average that he should easily be able to meet.
Bet 1 unit on Elijah Moore over 705.5 receiving yards (+100) to win 2 units
John Brown has bounced around the NFL in recent years, with this year's stop being in Las Vegas as a Raider. It's well-known the Raiders don't have a luxury of pass-catching options, outside of tight end, Darren Waller. With a receiving core of Henry Ruggs, John Brown and Bryan Edwards, someone other than Waller have to catches passes from quarterback Derek Carr. Pairing the need for a viable passing game target with the fact that the Raiders should have one of the worst defenses in the league, and it's easy to starting liking Brown's O/U line. Last season, Brown played in only nine games and had 458 receiving yards (50.8 yards per game). The year prior, Brown played in fifteen games and had 1,060 receiving yards (70.6 yards per game). Through the course of his career, Brown has averaged 49.45 receiving yards per game. He only needs to average 36.5 receiving yards per game to hit the over on his line this season. If he stays healthy, he's a lock for over 620.5 receiving yards.
Bet 1 unit on John Brown over 620.5 receiving yards (+100) to win 2 units
Did you know Brandin Cooks has hit 1,000 receiving yards in five of his seven seasons in the NFL? The years that Cooks didn't hit 1,000 yards was his rookie season in 2014 and his injury-shortened 2019 with the Los Angeles Rams. Cooks has done nothing but produce, when healthy. Even with the likelihood of shaky quarterback play this season, Cooks should easily go over 895.5 receiving yards. Cooks is the only viable pass-catching option in the putrid Texans offense. If he stays healthy, he should be seeing the vast majority of targets in the passing game, which significantly increases his odds of hitting the over on this line.
Bet 1 unit on Brandin Cooks over 895.5 receiving yards (-120) to win 1.2 units