Bales' Best Bet - Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
Alex Wood and the San Francisco Giants get a home matchup at Oracle Park against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unsurprisingly, San Francisco’s found more success in several categories in recent games. They own better team wOBA and strikeout rates over the last 14 days than Arizona. Surprisingly, the Diamondback’s bullpen xFIP sits slightly lower than the Giants over the last 30 days.
San Francisco’s advantages in the majority of categories in this game are represented by the -225 odds. The Giants boast the best record in the MLB at 71-41, and they’re playing to hold off a surging Los Angeles Dodgers team. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, feature the worst record in the league at 35-78. There is one bet that truly sticks out above the rest in this game.
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Alex Wood and the Giants opened as -220 home favorites against Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks. The odds have slightly shifted more toward San Francisco, as they’re now -225 favorites. The game total opened at 7.5 runs, increasing to 8 throughout the day. Overall, this gives Arizona an implied team total of only 2.8 runs, suggesting Wood will find plenty of success tonight. The movement can be found on our Trends page.
Wood’s seen a bit of a resurgence this season, although he’s been struggling a bit more in recent starts. Wood’s strikeout totals are a bit all over the place tonight. A few books don’t have props available for him. His total is set at 6.5 on the FanDuel Sportsbook and only 5.5 on PointsBet and BetMGM. The best odds are -105 on over 5.5 strikeouts on BetMGM.
Wood’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts throughout the 2021 season. He boasts 25.1% strikeout and 12.6% swinging-strike rates through 19 starts. He’s also posted a 9.64 K/9 in those games.
Ultimately, Wood’s recorded 110 strikeouts over 102.2 innings through 19 starts. He’s seen mixed results throughout the season, posting anywhere from 2 to 9 strikeouts in all of his starts. He’s posted 8 total strikeouts over his last 2 games, although he owns 6+ strikeouts in 5 of his last 7 starts. Ultimately, he’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in 12 of his 19 starts in 2021.
Wood’s strikeout rate increases to 26.4% in San Francisco this season. He also boasts a 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. When you account for both splits, his strikeout rate increases to 28.1%. Ultimately, he owns 59 strikeouts against 210 right-handed batters in San Francisco.
I’m looking to take advantage of the matchup tonight, though. Wood will face off for the fourth time this season against Arizona. In his only matchup against them at home, he recorded 7 strikeouts over 6 innings. He posted 5 and 8 strikeouts over 4 and 5 innings in a pair of matchups against them in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are expected to utilize six right-handed batters (excluding the pitcher) tonight. They’ve also been struggling in recent games, posting a slate-high 27.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days.
Wood isn’t a dominant strikeout option by any means, but he’s in an ideal matchup tonight. He’ll benefit greatly from playing at home, and there’s very little reason to believe a struggling Arizona offense will get to him early in this game.
Bet 1.05 units on Alex Wood over 5.5 strikeouts (-105) to win 1 unit on BetMGM