Bales' Best Bet - Milwaukee Brewers vs Chciago Cubs
Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers will travel to Wrigley Field for a matchup against Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs. Milwaukee owns the edge in essentially every aspect of this game. Burnes and the Milwaukee bullpen boast better numbers than Arrieta and Chicago’s bullpen. The Brewers also feature a higher team wOBA and a lower strikeout rate than the Cubs offense over the last 14 days.
These advantages are on display by the wide -265 odds Milwaukee boasts in this game. The Brewers feature one of the best records in the NL, and they’re 16.5 games ahead of the Cubs at the moment. Chicago also held a fire sale at the trade deadline, while Milwaukee was a buyer throughout the season
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Corbin Burnes and the Brewers opened as smaller -140 road favorites against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. The odds have widened drastically throughout the day, as Milwaukee is now a -265 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, increasing to 10 throughout the day. As you can see on our Trends page, Chicago still owns an implied team total of only 3.2 runs tonight.
Burnes’ in the midst of a potential Cy Young candidate season. He’s struggled a bit with strikeouts in recent starts, dropping his strikeout total to 7.5 tonight. This is his total on several books with odds as wide as -134 on PointsBet and as tight as -122 on FanDuel. The best current odds are -122 on over 7.5 strikeouts on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Burnes’ found tremendous strikeout success throughout the 2021 season. He’s posted 35% strikeout and 15.9% swinging-strike rates through 19 starts. He also boasts an outstanding 12.5 K/9 this season.
Overall, Burnes recorded 157 strikeouts through 113 innings over 19 starts. He’s struggled a bit in recent games, posting 6 or fewer strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. With that being said, Burnes’ posted 8+ strikeouts in 11 of those 19 starts.
He’s seen similar strikeout splits at home and on the road this season. Overall, his strikeout rate sits at 33.3% outside of Milwaukee. More importantly, he’s been an elite strikeout option against right-handed batters, recording a 38.1% strikeout rate against them in 2021. He also owns a dominant 32.2% strikeout rate against left-handed batters this season.
Burnes gets an elite matchup against Chicago tonight. He played against them once this season, posting 10 strikeouts over only 6 innings. It’s important to note this was Burnes’ third start of the season when he was throwing at the highest level possible.
The most important part of this matchup is Chicago’s recent form. Since the trade deadline, they lead the MLB in strikeout rate by a wide margin. Overall, they’ve recorded a .280 wOBA and a 29.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days.
The Cubs are expected to utilize five right-handed batters (including Jake Arrieta) tonight. Overall, they feature one of the weakest offenses in the MLB at the moment.
Burnes is a pitcher that should be able to find plenty of success in this game. He’s an elite arm against one of the worst offenses in the MLB, and he’s likely to throw deep into this game. His strikeout total is set entirely too low because of his recent production, and he boasts the potential to record double-digit strikeouts in this game.
Bet 1.22 units on Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts (-122) to win 1 unit on FanDuel Sportsbook
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