Joey's MLB Pitching Prop Bets Friday 08/13/21
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my MLB Pitching Props Article. Last week we had success attacking Ryan Weathers under for plus money against the Diamondbacks. As always, I start my research out by checking the FREE Projections Portal on DFSkarma.com. This is one of the best FREE tools on the market to help with not only DFS but player props as well. Tonight’s prop will be targeting a west coast team traveling to the east, as the Dodgers take on the Mets on the road. This will be a battle between Julio Urias and Tylor Megill.
Checking the live trends tool on BetKarma.com, it looks like neither team’s run total has too changed much. Dodgers opened up projected to score 4.8 runs now they are at 4.9. On the flip side, the Mets opened up projected to score 3.5 runs, now they are at 3.3. Even with the change for both teams’ projections, the run total has stayed steady at 8 all day. There seem to be some bets coming in on the Dodgers side as the ML has moved 10 to favor the Dodgers.
Now let’s dive into the actual prop. Megill has looked great in his first year as a pro. He is averaging 1.06 k/9, has a k% of 25.8%, averaging 5.3 Ks per game while pitching between 80-95 pitches a game. He has thrown for four or more Ks in every start but one and five or more Ks in 66% of his starts. He is projecting today for 5.46 Ks, so there is some edge. Therefore, according to our projections, he should be at 5.5 Ks. This puts him at the “He should pitch for 5 or 6 Ks in a majority of outcomes range” meaning this is a bet you want to jump on before the juice comes in.
Megill’s matchup is not extremely appealing, but that is the reason we get him at a discount today. People will see that he is pitching against the Dodgers and immediately just bet his under. I mean that is not a bad idea because of how little the Dodgers do K, bottom third in K%, but that is not how you are supposed to play props. Never just blindly bet the under in a bad matchup or blindly bet the over on a good matchup. That is what Vegas wants you to do and why usually they are over projecting or under projecting that player for the matchup. One advantage that Megill will have, is that the Dodgers will be without Mookie Betts and Justin Turner, two of their best hitters. On top of that, the Dodgers hit worse against righties compared to lefties. The Dodgers righties, who Megill pitches better against, have a 20% K% against lefties but a 21.5% K% against righties. This correlates nicely with Megill’s 28.6% K% against righties.