Cap's Season-Long NFL Player Props - Receptions
Welcome back, Karma Nation! Let's take a look at three season-long NFL player props that I think are worthwhile for the upcoming 2021 season. This week's player props are season-long receptions over/under. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets, make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in.
With Julio Jones in Tennessee, Calvin Ridley has a direct path to being a bonafide WR1 in a historically pass-heavy Atlanta Falcons team. In games Julio Jones missed with injury last season, Ridley performed better statistically. He can handle the load of being the main option in this offense and I expect him to smash the over on this line. Last season, in only 15 games, Ridley had 90 receptions. Baking in two extra games and an increase in target share with Julio out of town and Ridley should easily go over the 98.5 reception mark.
Bet 1 unit on Calvin Ridley over 98.5 receptions (-115) to win 1.15 units
In just 12 games last season as a rookie, Aiyuk racked up 60 receptions. While that was without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in the lineup consistently, Aiyuk should still easily surpass the line of 67.5 receptions in a full, 17-game season. As a rookie, Aiyuk had less than stellar quarterback play. Whether veteran Jimmy Garropollo is the starter or rookie Trey Lance, Aiyuk should still see significant improvement at the quarterback position. I'm taking the over all day at this line.
Bet 1 unit on Brandon Aiyuk over 67.5 receptions (-115) to win 1.15 units
In a full 16-games played last season, 2nd-year wide receiver Marquise Brown only had 58 receptions. He did this while being the only viable option in the passing game outside of Ravens tight end, Mark Andrews. With the additions of Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman (barring health), Tylan Wallace, and a reported uptick in J.K. Dobbins' passing game usage, I don't see how Brown hits the over on this line. Combine these factors with the fact that Brown is already dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp, and that the Baltimore Ravens still project to be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, and this feels like an easy under for the season.
Bet 1 unit on Marquise Brown under 60.5 receptions (-115) to win 1.15 units