Bales' Best Bet - Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against Jack Flaherty and the rival St. Louis Cardinals in Busch Stadium tonight. The starting pitchers in this game feature similar numbers, although Peralta’s been slightly better. Milwaukee also leads St. Louis in team wOBA and strikeout rate over the last 15 days and bullpen xFIP over the last 30 days. Ultimately, the Brewers have a slight edge in the majority of categories in this game.
The odds in this game reflect the similar numbers on each side with Milwaukee having a small edge. They’re currently a -125 road favorite. These teams are at slightly different stages in their seasons. Milwaukee’s leading the NL Central by a wide margin, while St. Louis has an outside chance of making the playoffs. These are two of the hottest teams in the MLB, though, as they’ve combined for a 15-5 record over their last 20 games.
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Freddy Peralta and the Brewers opened as -120 road favorites against Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals. The odds have widened slightly, as Milwaukee’s now a -125 favorite. The game total opened at 6.5 runs, increasing to 7 throughout the day. The Cardinals only own an implied team total of 3.4 runs, which can be found on our Trends page.
Peralta’s been an elite strikeout pitcher throughout the 2021 season. He owns a surprisingly low strikeout total on this slate. It’s currently set at 6.5 with odds on the under. The widest odds on the over sit at +105 on BetMGM.
Peralta’s one of the top strikeout pitchers in the MLB since changing his pitch mix this season. He boasts 34.5% strikeout and 14.4% swinging-strike rates thus far. He’s also recorded a 12.2 K/9 in 2021.
Peralta’s posted 162 strikeouts through 119.1 over 22 games (21 starts) this season. He struggled with strikeouts for a stretch of games, although he’s recorded 17 strikeouts over 11.1 innings in his last 2 starts. Peralta’s posted 7+ strikeouts in 16 of those 21 starts.
He’s found similar success regardless of where he’s throwing, posting a 34.4% strikeout rate at home versus a 34.6% strikeout rate on the road. His bigger splits come in terms of handedness. Peralta owns a 29.4% strikeout rate against left-handed batters in 2021. More importantly, he boasts a ridiculous 40.9% strikeout rate against right-handed batters. His xFIP also dips slightly lower on the road and it sits at only 2.60 against righties.
Peralta gets an ideal matchup against St. Louis tonight. He’s only thrown against them once this season, posting 8 strikeouts over 7 innings, although that game was in early May.
St. Louis’ offense has found plenty of success over the last 14 days. Over that span, they boast a .336 team wOBA to go along with a 21.4% strikeout rate. Their strikeout rate is one of the lowest on the slate tonight, which is somewhat concerning for this bet.
The Cardinals are expected to use seven right-handed batters (including Jack Flaherty) in this game tonight. Although they haven’t been striking out at a high rate in recent games, Peralta has a clear edge against right-handed batters. We’re getting this strikeout total at a bit of a discount because of an overreaction to Corbin Burnes struggling with strikeouts last night.
Bet 1 unit on Freddy Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts (+105) to win 1.05 units on BetMGM