Bales' Best Bet - Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
Daniel Lynch and the Kansas City Royals will travel to Minute Maid Park to face off against Zack Greinke and the Houston Astros. The Astros have a massive edge in the majority of categories in this game. Greinke boasts a drastically better xFIP, while the Houston offense owns a significantly better team wOBA over the last 14 days. The Astros also boast a massive edge in terms of bullpen xFIP over the last 30 days.
The odds in this game reflect a large edge for Houston in all categories, as they are -235 favorites. These teams are opposites on the season, as the Astros boast one of the best records in the AL, while the Royals rank second-last in the AL Central. Surprisingly, Houston’s only 5-5, while Kansas City’s 6-4 over their last 10 respective games.
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Daniel Lynch and the Royals opened as +225 underdogs against Zack Greinke and the Astros tonight. The odds have shifted drastically toward Kansas City, as they are now only +190 underdogs. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, increasing to 9 throughout the day. Ultimately, the Astros boast an implied team total of 6.3 runs, which can be found on our Trends page.
Lynch’s struggled with strikeouts in the MLB this season. His strikeout rate is low with wide odds on the under tonight. It’s set at 4.5 runs on several sportsbooks. It’s even set at 3.5 on DraftKings sportsbook with -170 odds on the over. You can find -156 odds on under 4.5 on the FanDuel sportsbook with as high as -180 odds on under 4.5 on PointsBet.
Lynch’s struggled quite a bit since taking a massive jump from A+ to the MLB in 2021. He owns 18.3% strikeout and 12.3% swinging-strike rates this season. He’s also recorded a 7.22 K/9 in 2021.
Lynch recorded 31 strikeouts through 38.2 innings over 8 starts this season. He’s quietly seen an uptick in strikeouts in recent games, posting 5+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. With that being said, he posted 4 or fewer strikeouts in each of his first 5 starts this season, and none of his advanced metrics suggest he’s gotten better as a pitcher in recent games.
Although limited innings, Lynch owns a 20.6% strikeout rate on the road compared to 17% at home this season. With that being said, his xFIP increases to 5.08 outside of Kansas City. He boasts a dominant 29.4% strikeout rate against left-handed batters in 2021. It dips down to 17.1% against right-handed batters, though, and he owns a 5.03 xFIP against that handedness.
Lynch gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. He recorded 5 innings over 7 innings in his last start against the Astros. None of his advanced metrics suggest he’ll be able to replicate that, though.
Houston’s looked outstanding over the last 14 days. Over that span, they boast a slate-high .353 team wOBA. They also own an 18.4% strikeout rate in those games, which is one of the lowest on the slate tonight.
The Astros are expected to utilize seven right-handed batters tonight. Even though Lynch recently posted 5 strikeouts against Houston, this is as bad of a matchup for him as he could see in the MLB. There are wide odds on the under 4.5 strikeout total, but it’s one of the top bets on the slate. If you’re feeling risky, you can bet under 3.5 strikeouts, as well.
Bet 1.56 units on Daniel Lynch under 4.5 strikeouts (-156) to win 1 unit on FanDuel Sportsbook