Bales' Best Bet - Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins

Josiah Gray and the Washington Nationals will travel to LoanDepot Park to take on the Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins. Gray hasn’t been the most impressive pitcher in terms of xFIP this season, although the matchup against Miami is ideal. They’ve been struggling offensively, giving Washington the edge in the bats. Cabrera will also be making his Major League debut, giving Gray a potential edge on the mound. With that being said, Washington features the worst bullpen in the MLB at the moment. 

 

The odds in this game represent the uncertainty of these two teams. The Nationals are currently -115 favorites against the Marlins. Both teams are building for the future, as they both sold several players at the MLB trade deadline. They’re pushing toward rebuilds, giving young pitchers innings as the season ends.

 

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Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins

Josiah Gray and the Nationals opened as +100 underdogs against Edward Cabrera and the Marlins. The odds have shifted, though, as Washington is now a -115 favorite. The game total opened at 7 runs, increasing to 7.5 throughout the day. Overall, as you can see on our Trends page, the Marlins only own an implied team total of 3.8 runs tonight. 

 

 

Gray’s found plenty of strikeout success throughout his rookie season. His strikeout total tonight somewhat represents that, as it’s set at 5.5 on the majority of sportsbooks. It’s currently set at 6.5 on FanDuel with -174 odds on the under. Ultimately, the best odds on the over are -145 5.5 strikeouts on the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

 

Gray’s been an outstanding strikeout pitcher this season, posting 28% strikeout and 16.9% swinging-strike rates. His success is far from surprising after being an elite strikeout option throughout his minor league career, as well. Overall, Gray owns a 10.5 K/9 in 2021. 

 

He’s recorded 35 strikeouts through 30 innings over 6 games (5 starts). The sample size isn’t large, but he’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in 4 of those 6 games, throwing 4+ innings in each game. Gray’s also thrown 6 innings in each of his last 2 games, suggesting he’s continuing to get comfortable in the MLB. 

 

The home/road splits are far too limited, as Gray’s only thrown in one road game this season. In that game, he posted a ridiculous 45.5% strikeout rate against the Atlanta Braves. That game resulted in his highest strikeout total on the season, recording 10 strikeouts over 5 innings. More importantly, Gray’s strikeout rate increases slightly to 29.3% against right-handed batters. He still boasts a 26% strikeout rate against lefties, though. 

 

He gets an elite matchup against Miami tonight. Over the last 14 days, the Marlins own one of the lowest team wOBA (.300) and the highest strikeout rate (27.7%) on this slate. He’ll also be throwing in one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB, potentially helping with his early career home run struggles. 

 

The Marlins are expected to utilize six right-handed bats (not including their pitcher) tonight. Gray will have every opportunity to find success in this game, specifically in terms of strikeouts. His walk rate is down over his last couple of games, allowing him to throw deeper into the game against some of the better offenses in the MLB. This total is set too low, although I’d side heavily with over 5.5 rather than 6.5. 

Bet 1.45 units on Josiah Gray over 5.5 strikeouts (-145) to win 1 unit on DraftKings Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus.