Bales' Best Bet - Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins
Zach Thompson and the Miami Marlins will host Wade Miley and the Cincinnati Reds in LoadDepot Part tonight. Miley’s been slightly better than Thompson in 2021, although both are due for regression as the season progresses. Miami’s offense has been struggling over the last 14 days, while Cincinnati’s has been a middle-of-the-road offense. Both bullpens have struggled a bit over the last 30 days, although the Marlins have a slight edge there.
The odds in this game represent two teams in different stages of their seasons, even if the numbers aren’t drastically better toward one team. The Marlins feature one of the worst records in the NL, while the Reds are fighting for a playoff spot. Even with a struggling offense, this should be a winnable game for Cincinnati.
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Zach Thompson and the Marlins opened as +115 underdogs against Wade Miley and the Reds. The odds have shifted slightly toward Cincinnati, as they are now -140 favorites. The game total opened at 7.5 runs, increasing to 8 throughout the day. Our Trends page should the Reds enter this game with a 4.7 implied team total.
Thompson’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts this season. He enters this game with a strikeout total of 4.5 on our available sportsbook. He garners plus odds on the over on all of them, as well. The best odds for this prop come from the FanDuel Sportsbook, as you can get +118 odds on over 4.5 strikeouts for Thompson tonight.
Thompson’s found inconsistent strikeout results for the Miami Marlins throughout his rookie season. He brings 21.8% strikeout and 11.9% swinging-strike rates into this game. He also owns a 7.96 K/9, which is down quite a bit from his mine league metrics.
The Miami rookie boasts 51 strikeouts through 57.2 innings over 12 starts. His success dipped in recent games, failing to post 4+ strikeouts in any of his last 4 starts. With that being said, Thompson recorded 5+ strikeouts in 5 of his first 8 starts. He’s flashed early in his MLB career, and I expect him to continue to produce more strikeouts as he gets more innings on the mound.
In limited innings, Thompson’s strikeout rate jumped from 19.8% on the road to 23.4% at home. More importantly, he owns a 3.96 xFIP in Miami, allowing him to throw deeper into games. His strikeout rate also increases from 19.8% against left-handed batters to 23.4% against right-handed batters. Furthermore, his xFIP dips to 4.00 against righties, allowing him significantly more success against that handedness.
Thompson gets an interesting matchup against Cincinnati. They’ve struggled on the road in 2021, and they’ll be playing in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Over the last 14 days, they own a .315 team wOBA. They’ve also recorded a 26.3% strikeout rate over that span, which is one of the highest in the MLB.
He gets an elite matchup against Miami tonight. Over the last 14 days, the Marlins own one of the lowest team wOBA (.300) and the highest strikeout rate (27.7%) on this slate. He’ll also be throwing in one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB, potentially helping with his early career home run struggles.
The Reds are expected to use five left-handed batters (not including the pitcher) tonight. This could pose a problem for Thompson, although I believe his Vegas line is set low because of recent struggles rather than his talent. This should still be a solid matchup for Miami’s rookie, and I prefer the over at plus odds.
Bet 1 unit on Zach Thompson over 4.5 strikeouts (+118) to win 1 unit on FanDuel Sportsbook - Click the link to receive a $1,000 risk-free bet
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