Cap's Season-Long NFL Player Props - Passing TDs Part Two

Welcome back, Karma Nation! I'll be highlighting three season-long NFL player props that I think are worthwhile for the upcoming 2021 season. This week's player props are season-long TD over/under. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.

All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in. 

 

Trevor Lawrence Over 25.5 Regular Season Passing TDs (+105)

The only two rookies in NFL history to throw for over 25.5 passing touchdowns as rookies are Seahawks QB Russell Wilson in 2012 and former Colt, Peyton Manning in 1998. While the odds may not be in Lawrence's favor, I think he's the most likely rookie quarterback to actually break this mark that has come around in a long time. We have to remember that many records are going to be broken with the extra game added to the NFL schedule and the increased efficiencies of the passing game league-wide. Don't forget with all the new hype around rookie quarterbacks in this class that Lawrence has long been regarded as the best QB prospect the NFL has seen since Andrew Luck entered the league. The Jaguars project to have one of the worst defenses in the league, which should force the team into negative game scripts and high passing volume games as a result. Lawrence also steps into an underrated group of receiving options, with sophomore LaViska Shenault and veterans in Marvin Jones Jr. and D.J. Chark. I like Lawrence to break 25.5 passing TDs, if he remains healthy for a full 17-game season. 

Bet 1 unit on Trevor Lawrence to throw over 25.5 regular-season passing touchdowns (+105) to win 2.05 units. 

 

Mac Jones Under 23.5 Regular Season Passing TDs (-120)

With Mac Jones recently declared as the starter for the New England, it's easy to fall into the hype going into the NFL season. In the case of Mac Jones, his offensive weapons are not quite as good as Lawrence's and the defense in New England it much better than Jacksonville's. I would expect Josh McDaniels and the Patriots offense to still be fairly run-heavy, with an emphasis on the play-action and controlling the time of possession to win games. While I like Jones this season for the offense as a whole, I don't see him throwing over 23.5 touchdowns this season. 

Bet 1 unit on Mac Jones to throw under 23.5 regular-season passing touchdowns (-120) to win 1.20 units. 

 

Patrick Mahomes Over 39.5 Regular Season Passing TDs (+110)

I don't think I'm shocking anyone when I saw Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL today. In terms of arm talent mixing with a great offensive situation, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are a match made in football heaven. This mesh of talent and situation makes previously unthinkable betting lines realistic. Through a full 16 game season in 2018, Mahomes threw 50 TDs. In his down season (2019), through 14 games, Mahomes threw 26 TDs. Last season, in 15 games, Mahomes threw 38 TDs. When Mahomes is healthy and on the field, he easily has a shot to throw for over 39.5 TDs in a 17-game season. With the improvements along the Kansas City offensive line, Mahomes should have plenty of time to throw and remain upright for an entire season again. 

Bet 1 unit on Patrick Mahomes to throw over 39.5 regular-season passing touchdowns (+110) to win 2.10 units.