Baker Mayfield over or under 3950.5 Passing Yards
Season-long props are one of the tougher choices each offseason. Usually, you will see targetable lines but you have to make sure that the player does not get hurt. Usually, if a player misses just one game they will go under. I’m sure everyone knows, throughout the years, injuries are not kind to NFL players. One position I like to target for season-long props is the QB spot. Usually, that is the least injured position for short-term injuries. If a quarterback gets injured, they are usually missing significant time. Although, this is not a common occurrence for pocket passers. There are a lot more variables to season-long passing props than just offensive player skills, whether that is O-line play, WRs, and the actually QBs play. While yes, those do matter, it isn’t as important as these other factors. You need to be looking at matchups and potential game scripts.
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3950.5 yards in a season is only 232 passing yards per game. While that does seem like a low average to achieve it’s a number that makes sense in the context of the Browns offense. In the era of prolific passing offenses, the Browns have found a way to dominate on the ground with their two running back sets. One interesting note about Baker is he has 16 games with fewer than 200 passing yards in his career. This is 34% of his starts, an insane number in today’s NFL. As well as, 50% of those games came against the AFC North. He has nine games over 200 yards in the AFC North, including four games over 300 yards against the Ravens, while no games over 200 yards against the Steelers. Last season he averaged 227 passing yards per game within the division, this included a 343-yard performance against the Ravens.
The tendencies say a lot about this offense. The Browns passed the ball 39% of the time on first downs, 61% on second downs, and 68% on third down. This compared to the league average of 50% on first down, 60% on second down, and 75% on third down. On average the Browns passed the ball 52% of the time, this places them 28th in % of plays as passing plays, the average across the league is 58%. This number gets exaggerated when just looking at the second half while leading. The Browns fall way below average, passing the ball only 34% of the time. If you exclude third down, they only pass the ball 28% of the time. As you can see once the Browns get the ball, they are looking to run. Who can blame them when they have the best one-two punch in the NFL and maybe in NFL history.
All that doesn’t matter unless they are winning the game. Let’s take a look at the schedule to see if they will be in winning situations the majority of the time. Who cares if they run the ball a ton unless they are actually winning the games. The Browns are the favorites in 13 games this season and only underdogs in two games. This means a majority of the time they will be either winning the game or at least in a close competitive game. Where the game script is telling them to run run run. They also will have the third toughest pass defense schedule while playing the third easiest run defense schedule. So the schedule is prime for them to continue to run the ball down everyone's throats.