Will Tarik Skubal Record More or Less than 5.5 Strikeouts?
Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers will travel to PNC Park for a matchup against Bryse Wilson and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Detroit has the edge basically everywhere in this game. Skubal’s xFIP sits over 1.00 run lower than Wilsons. Both bullpens have struggled, although Pittsburgh’s BP has been slightly worse over the last 30 days. The Tigers have also found more success offensive over the last 14 days than the Pirates.
The drastic difference in starting pitching is represented in the odds, as Detroit is currently a -140 favorite over Pittsburgh. Neither of these teams are making a playoff push, although the Tigers have been significantly more successful than the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh features one of the worst records in the MLB, while Detroit’s found a surprising amount of success this season.
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Tarik Skubal and the Tigers opened as small -115 favorites against Bryse Wilson and the Pirates. The odds have widened, as Detroit’s now a -140 favorite. The game total opened at only 7.5 runs, increasing to 8.5 throughout the day. Our Trends page shows that the Pirates own an implied team total of 3.9 runs.
Skubal’s been enjoying a solid season, flashing tremendous strikeout stuff over his last few games. His strikeout total is set at 5.5 today, although the odds are a bit all over the place. The best odds can be found at BetMGM, where you can get over 5.5 strikeouts for -118 odds. For comparison, the odds jump to -135 on DraftKings.
Skubal’s looked outstanding in terms of strikeouts in 2021. He enters this game with 26.4% strikeout and 11.6% swinging-strike rates. He boasts a 10.2 K/9 thus far, which is surprisingly the lowest rate of his career.
Skubal’s recorded 150 strikeouts over 133 innings through 26 games (22 starts). He’s posted 6+ strikeouts in each of his last 4 starts, totaling 29 strikeouts in those games. Overall, Skubal’s managed 6+ strikeouts in 13 of his 24 starts in 2021.
He’s found more strikeout success on the road this season. His strikeout rate jumps to 28.5% outside of Detroit. With that being said, his xFIP increases to 4.26 on the road, adding risk to this play. Skubal’s also found more strikeouts against right-handed batters, recording a 26.8% strikeout rate against that handedness. Similar to his home/road splits, as his strikeout rate increases, so does his xFIP, as it sits at 4.29 against righties this season.
Skubal gets an interesting matchup against Pittsburgh tonight. They’ve been struggling offensively over the last 14 days, recording a .309 team wOBA over that span. The Pirates also own a 22.2% strikeout rate over that span.
Pittsburgh’s expected to utilize six right-handed batters (excluding the pitcher) tonight. Skubal certainly comes with some risk, but their offense has been struggling enough to trust the Tigers pitcher here. This total is set a bit low, making the over the best bet in this game.
Bet 1.18 units on Tarik Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts (-118) to win 1 unit on BetMGM - Click the link to receive a Risk Free $600 Welcome Offer
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