Touki Toussaint and the Atlanta Braves will host Jon Gray and the Colorado Rockies in Truist Park tonight. Gray owns a small edge over Toussaint in terms of xFIP on the season, while they boast similar ERAs. These teams also feature similar bullpen xFIPs over the last 30 days. Furthermore, their offenses are posted nearly identical team wOBA and strikeout rates over the last 14 days. Overall, there isn’t much of a difference between the pitching or bats in this game in terms of recent statistics, although the location will likely play a major factor tonight.
Even with most of the metrics being similar over the last 14+ days, the Braves are currently -160 favorites over the Rockies. This likely has to do with the factor that Colorado’s struggled offensively on the road this season, and their massive home/road splits take precedent over their recent play. Colorado’s also riding out the remainder of the season, while Atlanta’s playing to earn the NL East division title.
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Touki Toussaint and the Braves opened as -165 home favorites against Jon Gray and the Rockies. The odds have shifted slightly toward Colorado throughout the day, as Atlanta is now a -160 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. Our Trends page shows the Rockies entering this game with an implied team total of only 3.8 runs.
Toussaint’s found plenty of strikeout success early in his MLB career, including the 2021 season. His strikeout total is set at 5.5 on a few sportsbooks with FanDuel offering the best odds at +136. I’m more interested in his total on DraftKings, where he owns -145 odds on over 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
Toussaint’s seen somewhat of mixed results in terms of strikeouts in 2021, recording 21.9% strikeout and 9.9% swinging-strike rates. These are two of the lowest rates of his career, although his CSW% hasn’t dipped much. Overall, Toussaint’s posted an 8.4 K/9 this season.
He’s posted 43 strikeouts over 46 innings through 10 games (9 starts) in 2021. He’s thrown 3 or fewer innings in each of his last 3 games, recording only 3 strikeouts over that span. With that being said, Toussaint posted 5+ strikeouts in 6 of his 7 starts prior to that.
His innings are somewhat limited, but Toussaint’s strikeout rate dips slightly to 20.5% at home from 23.1% on the road. More importantly, his xFIP jumped from 3.89 outside of Atlanta to 5.48 at home this season. Toussaint’s also significantly better against right-handed batters, recording a 24.6% strikeout rate with a 3.56 xFIP against them. His strikeout rate dips to 18.3% and his xFIP increases to 5.95 against left-handed batters.
The most important part of this bet is that Toussaint gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies in Atlanta tonight. The Rockies’ offense doesn’t travel well, and they’ve seen mixed results over the last 14 days. Over that span, they’ve recorded a .317 team wOBA to go along with a 22.2% strikeout rate. Toussaint faced them once this season, struggling in limited innings, although that game was in Coors, which will be drastically different from tonight.
The Rockies are utilizing 5 right-handed batters [not including the pitcher] tonight. This is an ideal matchup for Toussaint to get back on track. Although I think there’s value in betting over 5.5 strikeouts for plus odds on FanDuel, I’m sticking with the safety of over 4.5 strikeouts on DraftKings tonight.
Bet 1.45 units on Touki Toussaint over 4.5 strikeouts (-145) to win 1 unit on DraftKings Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to $1,000 sign up bonus