Jalen Hurts Rushing Prop vs San Francisco 49ers
Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will host Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ersat Lincoln Financial Field this week. Both teams are coming off of down 2020 seasons, as they finished last in the NFC East and West, respectively. They’re each looking to bounce back in 2021, recording wins against lesser competition in the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions in Week 1.
The odds are surprisingly close in this game, as the 49ers are currently only -150 favorites against the Eagles. As you can see on our Trends page, the spreads shifted in favor of Philadelphia, moving from +4 at opening to +2.5 right now. The game total’s on the rise, as well, jumping from 45.5 points to 50. Overall, the 49ers boast an implied team total of 26.25 points, while the Eagles own an implied team total of 23.75 points.
This article looks to find the best available bet in this game.
Hurts took over for the oft-injured Carson Wentz in 2020. He played full offensive snaps in only 3 of his 15 games as a rookie. In those games, he flashed elite ability as a runner, totaling 238 yards and 1 touchdown on 38 carries. Ultimately, he averaged 79.3 rushing yards per game, recording 63+ rushing yards in each of those contests.
Hurts started a fourth game as a rookie, totaling 34 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 carries in only 74% of the snaps against the Washington Football Team. There was no reason for the Eagles to jeopardize what was believed to be the future of their offense at that time, limiting his potential rush attempts in the final, meaningless game of the season.
I bet Hurts over 46.5 rushing yards last week against the Atlanta Falcons. He totaled 62 yards on only 7 carries. The Eagles blew out the Falcons in relatively quick order, limiting what was needed out of Hurts’ legs. He saw only 2 designed runs after the 10-minute mark in the third quarter, essentially showing he only needed a half to show his elite rushing potential.
Philadelphia brought Nick Sirianni in as their head coach, showing they’re looking to make improvements on the offensive side of the ball. They had an entire offseason to tailor the offense to Hurts’ abilities, as well. That seemingly worked early in the season, as he looked outstanding in his only game of the season.
One of the biggest keys to this bet is Hurts’ matchup against San Francisco. The 49ers struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in 2020, allowing 446 rushing yards to QBs, which ranked second last in the league.
Last week, an immobile Jared Goff recorded 14 rushing yards on 3 carries for Detroit. More importantly, the 49ers allowed 16 receptions for 121 yards and 1 touchdown to the Lions running backs last week. Although that doesn’t guarantee anything, generally allowing short completions out of the backfield means there will be lanes for mobile quarterbacks, as well.
The fact that DraftKings only increased Hurts’ rushing yards by a few was one of the bigger surprises in terms of props this week. He’s consistently beat this number while playing full snaps, including needing essentially a half last week. This game is expected to stay close with Philadelphia as small underdogs. If that’s the case, we’ll get four quarters of Hurts’ rushing potential in a great matchup, making this an easy spot to go back to again.
Bet 1.15 units on Jalen Hurts over 49.5 rushing yards (-115) to win 1 unit on DraftKings Sportsbook - Click the link to receive up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus
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