TNF Top 3 Player Props - Week 3
Welcome back, Karma Nation! I'll be highlighting three of my favorite NFL player props for Thursday Night's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans that I think are worthwhile. This article was 2/3 on prop bets last week (66%), and one Daniel Jones passing attempt away from being 3/3. So far on the season, we're 66% on correct props, so we're looking to keep the momentum rolling. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in.
This line is favored, but it's the type of safer plays you need to go after during the season to steadily increase your bankroll every week. We're not looking for a get-rich-quick scheme when identifying good player prop lines. I think Darnold is a lock over 1.5 Passing TDs this week, as the Houston defense is one of the worst in the NFL and has allowed 3 TDs to rookie Trevor Lawrence in Week 1, but only 1 to Baker Mayfield in Week 2. Darnold should be an easy over, as he has impressed in his limited time as the Panthers starting quarterback this year.
Bet 1 unit on Sam Darnold over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130) to win 1.30 units.
Thus far this season, D.J. Moore has looked every bit the part as the WR1 for the Carolina Panthers. Through just two games with Sam Darnold, D.J. Moore is averaging 9.5 targets, 7 receptions, 0.5 TDs, and 75 receiving yards per game. I expect Moore to continue the early trend this week against the suspect Texans passing defense. I'm surprised on the odds of this line. Vegas may be projecting for the Panthers to jump out to an early lead and stay there, but the competitiveness we've seen from the Texans early in the season indicates otherwise to me. I'm expected 6-8 receptions from D.J. Moore on the day. If this line moves above 5.5 and stays at the same odds, then I'll look for pivot options.
Bet 1 unit on D.J. Moore over 5.5 Receptions (+105) to win 2.05 units.
This is the same exact Over/Under line and odds as the D.J. Moore bet, and it still feels off to me. McCaffrey has averaged 7.5 targets and 7.0 receptions per game this season. Over the course of his career, McCaffrey has averaged 8 targets for 6 receptions per game, so this 5.5 over/under line is a great bet this week with the underdog odds attached to it.
Bet 1 unit on Christian McCaffrey over 5.5 Receptions (+105) to win 2.05 units.