CFB Week 4 - Best Player Props
Another successful week of college football in the books. I'm happy to announce that I will continue with the same format we started last week which is doing my write-ups based on the Prize Picks numbers. If you have PrizePicks available then your set, if not, have these writeups ready for when props drop on Saturday morning. Waiting until Saturday morning isn't a sustainable strategy so im glad we found a happy medium here, now let's get onto the player props.
I posted this on both Twitter (MonotoneFootbal) and in the BetKarma discord at 106.5 but we've seen a slight increase since then. That being said, this is still a very playable number, and I expect sportsbooks to be in the 105-115 range. Let's take a look at how Walker has done so far this season -
27 - 172 - 1 vs Miami
7-57-1 vs YSU
23 - 264 - 4 vs Northwestern
Can we take a second to acknowledge how crazy these numbers are? He put up 172 yards against a legitimately good Miami defense and 264 yards against Northwestern. His only miss was in a game that was over after the first quarter and still averaged 8.1 yards per carry. Walker is the best running back in the nation right now and I expect him to keep that up against Nebraska. The biggest worry for this play is getting in a game script where they are forced to pass all game but Nebraska isn't good enough for that, there will be a slower-paced ground battle between the two teams.
This is another play that we've seen some slight line movement on. It opened at 92.5 on PrizePicks but is still very live anywhere under 105. Mellusi has started off the season hot for the Badgers and is clearly their number one back, which is very important for these large numbers. Let's take a look at how Mellusi has performed so far -
31 - 121 - 1 vs Penn State
20 - 144 - 1 vs EMU
Penn State is definitely the litmus test here, there is a nationally ranked team with a comparable defense to Notre Dame. While it wasn't his best game ever, only 3.9 yards per carry, the trust they showed in him was evident. He carried the ball 31 times in that game and that's not something to smirk at, they clearly wanna run the ball and control the clock this season.
Notre Dame has allowed two of the three running backs they faced this year to eclipse this number. The only miss was against Perdue where the Boilermakers were forced to throw the ball 54 times due to being down for most of the game. Toledo played a close game with Notre Dame and 114 rushing yards from their lead back, Florida State had 144. Volume is king with these props and Notre Dame doesn't really scare me here.
Max Johnson o294.5 Passing Yards - Great matchup and has looked good, should be a pass-heavy game script.
Will Rodgers o2 Passing TD’s - This game smells like fireworks, 2.7 is my projected number. A push is possible but ill take my chances.
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