Joey's MLB Pitching Prop Bets Friday 09/24/21
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my MLB Pitching Props Article. Last week we had success attacking Ian Anderson over 4.5 Ks at even odds against the San Francisco Giants. As always, I start my research out by checking the FREE Projections Portal on DFSkarma.com. This is one of the best FREE tools on the market to help with not only DFS but player props as well. Although, if you are looking for ease of mind to have us compare the books to our projections check out our premium tools. Tonight’s prop will be targeting a pitcher coming back from injury on a pitch count as the Indians take on the White Sox at home. This will be a battle between Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease.
As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state.
This prop seems weird to read, why would we be going under on Shane Bieber at only 5.5 Strikeouts. He is one of the best pitchers in the league and is averaging 9.3 Ks per game. He has only gone under this total once this season and never last season. Well, Bieber is coming off an injury that has held him out on June 13th. Obviously, there will be a pitch count on him since this is the first time, he has pitched in over three months. The important question is how many pitches he will get. Per pitching coach Carl Willis, Bieber will be on a 50 to 55 pitch count. Now we have to decide if that is enough to reach 6 Ks or is this a number, we should be pounding the under on. Coach also said, “We’re most likely looking at three innings”. That means there will only be nine possible strikeouts if that number stays true. That means he will need an 18 k/9 rate tonight. A number he has hit once this season as a fully healthy pitcher. I am not expecting him to be 100% so I am not expecting a ceiling performance tonight.
The main worry for him is that he is in a fairly easy matchup tonight against the White Sox. They are a middle-of-the-road strikeout team with a K% of 22.8%. All but one of their starters today have a k% of at least 21%. Although, no batter has more than a 28% k%. So, there is no one on the team that is a guaranteed strikeout, this is one of the main reasons I am confident on this under. Over the last 25 games, only three pitchers have more than 5.5 strikeouts and those pitchers all made it 7.0 innings pitched. Expect Bieber to continue this trend tonight.