Early TNF Player Props - Week 4
Welcome back, Karma Nation! I'll be highlighting three of my favorite NFL player props for Thursday Night's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals. This article series is 5/9 on prop bets thus far this year (55%). After a 1/3 week last TNF due to Sam Darnold's rushing TD and Christian McCaffrey's injury, we're looking to get right back on track. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let's dive in.
This line is a little risky at first glance, but when you look at Robinson's usage in the passing game thus far this season, it becomes more encouraging. Through a 3-game sample size in 2021, Robinson has 15 targets and 12 receptions for 92 yards. Robinson is averaging 5 targets and 4 receptions per game, putting him just over this 3.5 reception total. I like Robinson to hit the over in a game where we should see the Jaguars in a negative game script. Both teams have a less than stellar defense, which should lead to plenty of passing attempts from Trevor Lawrence. I'm chasing the probability of volume here and taking the over on Robinson's receptions.
Bet 1 unit on James Robinson over 3.5 receptions (+120) to win 2.2 units.
Jones Jr. has looked every bit the part of the WR1 for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Through 3 games in 2021, Jones Jr. is averaging 5.5 receptions per game, putting him a full reception over this line. In what should be a pass-heavy game script for the Jaguars, I'd expect Jones Jr. to continue his early reception trend in this game against a weak Bengals secondary and hit the over on this line.
Bet 1 unit on Marvin Jones Jr. over 4.5 receptions (-155) to win 1.05 units.
Like we touched on in the receptions prop, Robinson should be heavily involved in the passing game this week. Through 3 games, Robinson is averaging 30.5 receiving yards per game, putting him well over this line. Since I'm confident in the over 3.5 receptions for Robinson, I'm taking this line as well.
Bet 1 unit on James Robinson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-120) to win 1.20 units.
If you were to parlay all 3 picks together in a same game parlay with $100, the potential payout is $280.