Kyler Murray Passing Prop vs Los Angeles Rams
Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals will travel to SoFi Stadium for a divisional matchup against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. These are two of the best teams in the NFC [or NFL], combining for a 6-0 record through Week 3. The Cardinals boast a +38 point differential, finding wins against the Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Rams have been equally impressive, recording a +33 point differential with wins against the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The success of these teams, specifically the offenses, is represented in the odds for this game. Los Angeles is currently a -4 point home favorite, suggesting these teams are seen as relatively even. The game total is set at 55 points, which is the highest of the week. The expectation is for a matchup between two of the best offenses [and teams] in the NFL this weekend.
This article looks to find the best available bet in this game.
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Kyler Murray’s coming off of an outstanding sophomore season for Arizona. He posted 3,971 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on 558 pass attempts. Overall, Murray averaged 248.2 passing yards per game, which is up from the 232.6 he averaged as a rookie.
He’s taken another massive step forward in 2021, which was expected by the majority of NFL fans. Through only 3 games, he’s posted 1,005 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 102 pass attempts. He’s averaging 335 passing yards per game this season. Murray boasts career-highs in adjusted yards per attempt and net adjusted yards per attempt along with several other categories this season.
Murray’s the focal point of the offense, although he’s yet to record more than 36 pass attempts in a game this season. He needed only 21 completions to record 289 yards against Tennessee. He saw a slightly bigger role the next two weeks in closer matchups, recording 400 and 316 yards against Minnesota and Jacksonville.
Most importantly this week is the matchup. Murray will face off against Los Angeles this weekend. The Rams rank eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed (281.3) per game. With that being said, they only rank 23rd in adjusted yards per attempt (6.3), suggesting they feature a better pass defense than the base metrics show from the volume they face weekly because of their leads.
Los Angeles currently ranks in the bottom-six of the NFL in air yards allowed (519) and yards after the catch allowed (456). The importance of this shows that there are several ways to beat their defense, although they are also metrics that are somewhat based on volume. Keep in mind, the Rams rank near league average in missed tackles this season.
One of the more surprising aspects of the Los Angeles defense is their lack of pressure on the quarterback early this season. They rank ninth in the NFL in blitz rate (28.9%), but they only rank 25th in pressure rate (21.5%). Furthermore, 16th in hurry rate (9.4%) and 25th in QB knockdown rate (6.9%).
This game is expected to stay close with the Rams being relatively small favorites. Essentially, Murray should have four quarters to throw against a Los Angeles defense that just allowed Tom Brady to throw for 432 yards. The Cardinals quietly boast a variety of pass catchers with YAC-ability, and Murray should be able to maneuver his way around their lack of pressure. This total should be set significantly closer to 300 yards, and we can take advantage of the light pricing this weekend.
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