Joey's NFL Primetime Props 09/30/21
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another week of the NFL season! At first glance, tonight seems like a bad game. Why would the NFL have the Bengals play the Jaguars in primetime? Well, this is a rematch for the QBs of the 2020 National Championship game between LSU and Clemson as well as the battle between the previous two number one overall picks. The hope was for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to look better to start the season but after three straight games of at least two interceptions thrown and an 0-3 record, that has not been the case. Will the thought of getting revenge on the former LSU Tiger, Joe Burrow, help Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars pull off their first win of the season and the first win of his career? Although, the Bengals come in as 7.5-point favorites, according to our Live Odds page, against the Jaguars. So that dream may have to wait another week.
So far, our article is 2-1 +0.90 units, last week I believe Marshall got that one extra reception to go over due to the loss of Christian McCaffrey increasing his target share and routes run. So, let’s move forward to tonight.
As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state.
We are starting to update all the top props for this weekend make sure to join before the lines move too much. Prop lines tend to move more often than spreads and Moneylines, so it is always best to lock those in as early as possible. This is just one of many tools we offer at betkarma.com check out the rest of the tools we have to offer and their pricing guide on the site.
The first stop on my research process when prop betting is taking a look at Betkarma’s prop predictor. Especially for primetime games, where the selection of props is much lower. This way I can find out if there are a lot of edges or go lighter on the number of props that I am playing that night. There is currently only one top prop (A- or better). This is the prop I will be going in-depth on because it was also a prop I have been eyeing up ever since the lines were put up.
Joe Mixon is one of the top workhorse backs in the league according to the number and % of backfield touches he receives. During week two’s game against the Chicago Bears, he had 100% of the RB touches. Even last week, Perine only had one carry while only playing 10 snaps including four snaps where he was just a blocker. This is clearly Mixon’s backfield and a reason I was so high on him during the offseason after Gio Bernard left. There were just no other backs that I felt could contend for a high snap rate.
Since this is a receiving prop, it is not all about the touches because rushing touches mean nothing for a receiving prop. Mixon is surprisingly lining up as a WR on 28% of his snaps in week two and on 17% of his snaps in week three. Although, during those weeks he only had one reception in each game on an average of 1.5 targets during those weeks. The week he did not run routes as a WR, he went for 23 yards on four targets and receptions. Last week, he did not run many routes out of the backfield, but in week two he had 23 routes run. I expect them to run Mixon on more routes again tonight with last week being more of an outlier week.
One of the main reasons I am looking at this prop after two dud games from Mixon in the air is the absence of Tee Higgins from the offense. Even though he failed to go over last game without Higgins this was a weird week where Burrow didn’t have many pass attempts or completions due to short fields off of the lack of offense from the Steelers. He only completed 14 passes on 18 attempts against the Steelers. A volume you would not expect to result in a ceiling outcome from Mixon. Expect a nice bounceback in the air from Mixon tonight.
Joe Mixon over 17.5 Rec Yards (-110 1.10 units to win 1 unit):