Will Adam Wainwright Record More or Less than 4.5 Strikeouts vs Los Angeles Dodgers?
Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals will travel to Dodger Stadium to face off against Max Scherzer and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Wild Card game. Both of these pitchers looked outstanding throughout the 2021 season, although Scherzer takes the edge over the St. Louis ace. These have been two of the hottest offenses in the MLB over the last 14 days, as well. Los Angeles holds a small edge, but they’ve been extremely similar in recent games. Finally, the Cardinals and Dodgers own virtually identical bullpen xFIPs over the last 30 days.
Unsurprisingly, there is a heavy backing of Scherzer and Los Angeles tonight. Even though they’re in the Wild Card game, the Dodgers are still seen as one of the top favorites to win the World Series. With that being said, the recent metrics don’t suggest the Los Angeles should be a -235 favorite in this game. It’s a clear backing of Scherzer, though, who could be the best pitcher in the MLB at the moment.
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Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals are roughly +200 underdogs depending on the sportsbook you’re using. As you can see on our Odds Comparison page, several sportsbooks offer them at +200 odds, while some have them all the way down at +180. Max Scherzer and the Cardinals’ closest odds sit at -219, while the widest odds are at -245.
Wainwright’s been a mixed bag in terms of strikeouts throughout the 2021 season. He owns a strikeout total of 4.5 on the majority of books. The best odds for that total is +120 on FanDuel. You can also get -165 odds on over 3.5 strikeouts on DraftKings if you want to take a safer route.
Wainwright’s seen plenty of ups and downs when it comes to strikeouts this season. He owns 21% strikeout and 8.1% swinging-strike rates in 2021. He also owns a 7.59 K/9, which is up slightly from the shortened 2020 season.
Wainwright boasts 174 strikeouts through 206.1 innings over 32 starts. He’s been struggling in recent games, posting fewer than 5 strikeouts in each of his last 6 starts. With that being said, he boasts 4 strikeouts in 4 of those 6 starts. Furthermore, Wainwright’s posted 5+ strikeouts in 20 of his 32 starts in 2021.
He’s seen similar results at home and on the road this season. His strikeout rate sits at 20.9% on the road as opposed to 21.1% at home. The bigger issue is his xFIP increases from 3.78 at home to 4.02 on the road. Wainwright’s been better against right-handed batters in 2021. He boasts a 22% strikeout with a 3.69 xFIP against righties this season. His strikeout rate dips to 20.1% and his xFIP increases to 4.05 against left-handed batters. Still, he’s found solid success in virtually all situations in 2021.
Wainwright gets a terrible matchup against Los Angeles tonight. They’ve posted a 0.362 team wOBA over the last 14 days, which is elite. They also only own an 18.9% strikeout rate over that span. In their only matchup this season, Wainwright recorded 4 strikeouts over 8.1 innings, although he also allowed 4 earned runs.
The Dodgers are expected to utilize 6 right-handed batters including Scherzer tonight. Wainwright’s consistently been an outstanding option in 2021, and I generally support pitchers over hitters in these types of high-pressure situations. You could play it safe by betting on DraftKings tonight with the total set at only 3.5 strikeouts, but I prefer the plus odds on the 4.5 total in this matchup.
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