Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop vs Green Bay Packers
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at Paul Brown Stadium this weekend. Both teams have quietly found success, posting 3-1 records through Week 4. The Bengals boast a +17 point differential, beating the Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Packers own a -5 point differential with wins over the Detroit Lions, San Francisco Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The odds represent the public perception of these teams, along with potential injuries this week. Green Bay’s currently a -3 point road favorite over Cincinnati. The game total is currently set at 50 points, which is one of the higher point totals on the slate. Ultimately, the offenses should take the lead in this game.
This article looks to find the best available bet in this game.
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Joe Burrow looked outstanding in only 10 starts throughout his rookie season. He posted 2,688 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 404 pass attempts. He recorded 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt while averaging 268.8 yards per game.
Burrow’s seen mixed results since returning from a major injury. Through 4 games as a sophomore, he’s recorded only 988 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Overall, he’s averaging 247 yards per game, although his adjusted yards per attempt jumped to 9.2 in limited games this season.
The sample size is somewhat limited at only 14 games, but Burrow owns massive home/road splits throughout his short career. He’s played only 6 games at home thus far, recording 1,757 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s averaging 292.8 yards per game with 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt.
On the road, Burrow’s posted 1,919 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions over 8 games. He’s averaging only 239.9 yards per game with 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Surprisingly, Burrow’s averaging 52.9 more yards on 1.2 fewer pass attempts per game.
One of the biggest keys to this bet is the matchup. The Bengals are being careful with Burrow after his injury. The Packers don’t feature one of the better pass rushes in the NFL, though. Through 4 weeks, they rank 22nd in pressure rate (23.5%) and 27th in hurry rate (6.7%). Green Bay also ranks 12tth in blitz percentage (28.2%), giving Burrow an edge if they can’t get pressure on him.
The Packers are dealing with a few key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, as well. Za’Darius Smith is on the injured reserve, while Jaire Alexander isn’t expected to suit up in this game. Green Bay’s already thin at cornerback, and they’ll likely be relying on a struggling Kevin King, who’s also dealing with an injury, and a rookie in Eric Stokes. This isn’t a defense that will strike fear in any opposing quarterback.
Joe Mixon hasn’t been ruled out this week, but it’s unlikely he suits up. Surprisingly, he hasn’t been a major factor in the passing game, and if he’s unable to play, the offense could run through Burrow more than usual. He proved that he can handle a normal role last week, and this could be the second week in a row Burrow records more than 30 pass attempts.
The Bengals have taken it easy with Burrow early this season. He’s coming off of his most successful game of the season, though, and he could be without Joe Mixon, who Cincinnati’s used in a workhorse role early this season.
Burrow gets a great matchup against Green Bay, who’s struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. He’s also playing at home, where he’s found more success early in his young career. The Bengals could be forced to lean heavily on Burrow, and he boasts the potential to throw for 300+ yards for a second consecutive week.
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