CFB Spread Pick - Can Michigan State Stay Hot?

Last week we had a great pivot from props to spreads and hit both Boston College 1H and full game for a nice 2-0 card. We’re hoping to keep that momentum coming today with another great spread pick! Yesterday I shared both Houston -6 and Coastal Carolina o1H o23.5 in the discord so we are definitely looking to continue that momentum into the weekend. Michigan State vs Rutgers has been a game I've been monitoring very closely, super excited for this play!

 

Michigan State -4 -110 (Pinnacle)

 

This has been a conviction play for me all week. This line opened at 5 in most places and is now between -4 and -5.5 on most sportsbooks. I expected this line to move closer to -6/-7 so we still have some good value here. This is a home game for the Scarlet Nights who boast a 3-2 record. The Visiting Michigan State squad is ranked #11 in the country and is currently sitting at 5-0. 

 

Kenneth Walker, Michigan State’s RB, currently leads the nation in rushing yards with 680 on 100 carries this season. The key for this Michigan State offense is establishing the run, doing that sets up a solid passing game and allows these players to really step up. Walker's one rough game came against a tough Nebraska defense but he was able to rebound against WKU last week with 126 Carries. 

 

Rutgers is a team that has taken care of business in the easier spots but really struggled in the spotlight this season. After a 3-0 start against Delaware, Temple, and Syracuse, Rutgers was really starting to have some momentum along with some pretty solid national media attention. That being said, the back-to-back losses to both Michigan and Ohio State really hurt this team. Both were games where they started strong but really couldn't sustain the momentum for much of the game. 

 

Overall it's pretty simple, Rutgers should take care of business against bad teams but Michigan State is starting to smell legitimate contender chances. With the Big 10 looking vulnerable this has suddenly become a must-win game. Considering the fact that this spread should be -6 I'll take the value all day long with a tough old school Michigan State squad. 

 

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