Joey's NFL Prop Ticket Week 5
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Joey's NFL Prop Ticket Week 5

Joey Cartwright
10-09-2021

What is up Karma Nation! I have decided to switch up my article process for the week and give you an all-in-one prop ticket article. This article will outline my top 5 props of the weekend. To gain access to the rest of my prop bets join our discord for free by going to dfskarma.com/chat. I can’t believe we are already to week 5 of the NFL season, but the good news is now we have a lot more data to base our picks on. We have officially hit the sweet spot of prop betting. These middle weeks, 5-12, are where I see my biggest profits. On top of my free okays, click the link to get access to all our premium tools on our site.

 

As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. 

 

I’m sure a majority of my following is familiar with the prop sites Prizepicks, MonkeyKnifeFight, and Underdog Fantasy. If you are not familiar click on the links and use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus. If you are a new sign-up for the site, send me a DM in discord and I can get you access to all our premium plays for FREE!

 

All props are to win 1 unit!

Ekeler 4.5 receptions -130:

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Ekeler was coming off back-to-back 6+ receptions games before last week where Justin Jackson stole 4 targets from him. It seemed like every time Ekeler went out Jackson came in and got a target. The good news? Justin Jackson is out this week so there are no other pass-catching backs in this offense. After game one in Washington where he saw zero targets but the same routes run as the next three games, he has seen 5 or more targets in all of those contests.

 

He is going up against the Browns who have one of the best pass rushes in the game. The Browns force pressure on 33% of QBs dropbacks this season. Clowney and Garrett are both on the injury report and are questionable to play but expected to play this week. The chargers' O-line has been great this season but going up against a top-tier defensive line they will be truest tested this week. They have only allowed pressure on 23% of Herbert's dropbacks.

 

Juju Smith-Schuster under 43.5 yards -115:

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This is a matchup I love to target the under on each and every week. You can get a more in-depth look at this matchup in my WR/CB Matchups article.

 

Juju has been less than great this season and I expect another less than stellar performance this Sunday as the Steelers take on the broncos. Surprisingly, his yards have gone down every week so far to start the season. Last week he struggled to make separation as he went for 11 yards and two receptions on eight targets. Every week you want to avoid slot WRs against Callahan as he is the best slot corner in the league. Callahan lines up in the slot 94% of routes covered, he is allowing 0.07 fpts/route covered, a catch% of 33% and 0.38 yards per route covered. He has covered 109 slot routes, he has allowed 44 yards and 4 receptions on 11 targets. He leads the league with a reception every 27 snaps. Expect him to shut down another player this weekend in the slot. Engrain in your head, avoid slot WRs v Denver as long as Callahan is playing.

 

 

Damien Harris Over 70.5 rushing yards -115:

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This is a line we hit earlier in the week at 59.5 yards on Prizepicks.online, but I still like it at 70.5 even with the Patriots potentially missing four linemen. Harris is coming off one of the worst running back performances of the season as he went for 4 rushes for -4 yards this coming right after rushing 6 times for 14 yards against the Saints. These two teams rank first and second in the league for rushing yards allowed so you figured he would struggle. Bill Belichick and the Patriots are a team that love to run the ball,l so you know It pained him to only give Harris 10 carries over a two-game stretch. Expect them to feed Harris this week as they go up against the worst run defense in the league.

 

This week he gets a matchup against Houston that is a complete 180 from the prior two weeks. The Texans allow the 5th most rushing yards with 137 yards per game while giving up 4.5 yards per carry. Most importantly, the Texans are allowing a league-worst 2.69 yards before contact and are only one of four teams to allow more than 2.00 yards before contact. We will be attacking another running back in a similar spot later in the article.

 

 

Nick Chubb Over 82.5 Rushing Yards -115:

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Chubb has been a monster all season and that has not been unexpected as he is one of, if not the best, running back in the league. Chubb is someone who is able to break tackles at an extremely high rate, which has led him to always be at the tops of the rankings for yards per game. He is currently first in the league in missed tackled forced with 18. This season is no different as he has gone over this total in every game he has played so far, including one 100 yard game last week against the Vikings. This has led him to be second in the league in rushing yards, second only to Derrick Henry. This is why they call him King Henry.

 

This is another running back with offensive line troubles, as the Browns may be without three of their starting offensive linemen. Although, we are in the same situation as before with Harris, where the Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the league. They are a team that runs a heavy amount of Nickel packages. Meaning they replace one of their three linebackers with a third cornerback. This makes them a far worse tackling team but helps them in the passing game. Unfortunately for the Chargers, it is already difficult to tackle Chubb and now they make that worst with the coverage they run. The Chargers are one of those four teams I mentioned earlier that allow over 2.00 yards before contact. They rank third-worst, allowing 2.26 yards before contact.

 

 

Joe Burrow over 267.5 Passing Yards -115:

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This is another play we got in early on Prizepicks.online. Make sure to jump in our discord and get these plays in early before my article drops to get the best lines possible. The number got raised after the news that Tee Higgins was going to be active this week. Giving Burrow another weapon to use in the passing game. This coming at the perfect time as the Bengals will be without Joe Mixon for at least one game. This should lead to an increase in Burrow’s usage as I don’t foresee them giving Perine the same work in the running game as they did Mixon. After Mixon went down with his injury, Perine only had three carries. Burrow has only gone over this total in one game this season but he started the year against three tough defenses and now he will be on a three-game stretch of much easier defenses to attack through the air, this stretch started last week with the Jaguars.

 

Normally, the Green Bay Packers have a fantastic secondary and are a team you don’t really want to attack. Although, this week is different. The Packers will be without star cornerback Jaire Alexander, but luckily for them, they will be getting Kevin King back. King is just one corner as they will have to line up against three fantastic WRs this week. I detail this matchup even more in my WR/CB article. The Bengals will also have to keep up with the scoring of Aaron Rodgers, who is going up against their poor defense. Expect the Bengals to be playing from behind all game leading to more passing game work for Burrow.


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