Joey's MLB Pitching Prop Bets Friday 10/15/21
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my MLB Pitching Props Article. Last week we took advantage of a high pitching prop on a rookie in his first post-season start and only 4th career start. Books had Shane Baz at an outlandish 5.5 strikeout prop. Baz finished the game with 2 Ks in just 2.1 IPs. Let’s see what edge we can find tonight. As always, I start my research out by checking the FREE Projections Portal on DFSkarma.com. This is one of the best FREE tools on the market to help with not only DFS but player props as well. Although, if you are looking for ease of mind to have us compare the books to our projections check out our premium tools. Tonight I will be targeting a pitcher at home for plus money. This will be a battle between Framber Valdez and Chris Sale in game one of the ALCS in Houston.
As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state.
Valdez has shown success in the playoffs before, going for 4+ Ks in every game he has pitched and has gone over this total in four out of five post-season appearances. Last week in game two of the ALDS against the White Sox, Valdez only pitched 69 times going for six Ks against 20 batters. He only pitched a career post-season low 4.1 innings mainly due to giving up 7 hits and 4 runs. Pitching only 4.1 innings would put him in the bottom 10% of his appearances this season as he pitched for 4.0 or more innings in every game this season. As an elite pitcher this 4.5 K strikeout prop seems low for him and to give the juice to the under seems strange as well. The Astros just lost their Ace Lance McCullers to an injury making Valdez their new aces. This would lead me to believe they are going to want to stretch him out to as many innings as possible. No reason to use a lot of your bullpen if they are going to be short on starting pitchers the rest of the postseason.
This is not an extremely favorable matchup for him tonight, but as we get later and later in the postseason you don’t expect extremely favorable matchups anymore. The Red Sox have had success against lefties this season, striking out at only a 16.1% rate. Although, Valdez has had success against this team already this season. In his two starts against the Red Sox earlier in the season, Valdez struck out 18 total batters in 14.1 innings pitched. This was across two games so he averaged 7 innings and 9 Ks in those two games. Surprisingly, these were his two ceiling strikeout games. Going for 10 Ks in 7 innings on 6/02 and 8 Ks in 7.1 innings on 06/08. Expect another high strikeout game from him tonight as he looks to get the Astros going on the right page in game one of the ALCS.
Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Ks +125 1 unit to win 1.25 units: