Joey’s NFL Prop Ticket Week 6
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another week of my NFL Prop Ticket Article. In this article, I will break down my top 5 props of the week. Last week, we were able to hit 4-1 of our props with the only miss being an injury to Damien Harris. Where he got injured not once, but twice in the same game. Let's see if we can go 5-0 today! To gain access to the rest of my prop bets join our discord for FREE by going to dfskarma.com/chat or clicking the link above. Another week in the books leading us to week 6 of the NFL season, but the good news is now we have a lot more data to base our picks on. We have officially hit the sweet spot of prop betting. These middle weeks, 5-12, are where I see my biggest profits. On top of my free okays, click the link to get access to all our premium tools on our site.
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All props are to win 1 unit!
Brandin Cooks is coming off a season-low three receptions on five targets for 23 yards. This happening just as Davis Mills is coming off a season-high 312 yards and three TDs. While this number should surprise you it really doesn’t surprise me as the Texans were playing the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick loves taking away the team’s first option Although, what did surprise me was the success of Davis Mills even without the use of Brandin Cooks. Prior to last week, Cooks led the league in, % of team’s air yards (57.5%) no player had more than 50%, as well as leading the league in target share with 37.75%. Second place in both of those categories was DK Metcalf with 49.75% air yards share and a 31.75% target share. Last week, Cooks’ numbers weren’t as bad as the boxscore may have suggested. He was second on the team with a 23% air yards share and a 19% target share. I would not freak out due to the bad box score because the sustainability of high output is still present.
I am surprised to see this as + money prop and I assume the line moves towards even odds. While he has only gone over this total twice this season he is coming off 4 of the worst passing matchups on the year with a rookie QB. As their chemistry improves more and more expect this duo to thrive.
Renfrow has been everyone’s favorite prop bet WR. They finally adjusted his lines but that came at a bad time since he is in a tough matchup this week. H goes up against the number one slot corner in the league. Renfrow has been the definition of consistent this season, he has either five or six receptions in every game this season with 6+ targets in every game as well. Renfrow is currently fourth on the team in air yards but this has led to first on the team in yards after the catch.
Callahan is someone I feature in my article regularly so if you are a returning reader, you have probably know his name well. Even though Juju did get hurt last week and finished with 0 targets, his replacement Ray-Ray McCloud came in and had one target on him for one reception and one yard. This is not something that is new for Callahan. He has covered the 8th most slot routes in the league, he has allowed the least amount of yards out of the slot among CBs that have covered at least 80 routes out of the slot; 21 corners qualify. This has led to the league lead among these qualifying corners a target every 9.8 snaps and a reception every 25.6 snaps. I mentioned that Renfrow led the team in YAC but Callahan has only allowed 4 yards after the catch.
Robby Anderson has not shown up on the stat sheet much this season. Averaging 2.4 receptions and 35.8 yards per game on 5.8 targets per game. With the loss of CMC Anderson has improved his numbers. Going for similar yards per game of 38 but seeing improvements to 3.5 receptions and 9 targets per game. This has led to Anderson having a 41% air yards share and a 24.5% target share.
Bashaud Breeland and the Vikings are a team I like to target. They allowed a 100-yard receiver in their first three games of the season but have slowed down the last two games mainly due to the matchups. Going up against a run-heavy Browns team and a floor 200 yard game from Goff. Breland is allowing 2.17 yards per route covered and 0.56 Fpts per route covered both ranking bottom 5 in the league. He is also bottom 5 in snaps per reception and snaps per target. He is one of only nine corners to allow 300 yards receiving on the season so far.
With Marlon Mack having one foot out of Indy, this has led to the explosion on Jonathan Taylor we all expected and got to see last season when Mack was out with an Achilles tear. Surprisingly, Taylor's production has not jumped off the stat sheet. He is going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league the Houston Texans. They are giving up a league-high 2.54 yards before contact this season. A deflated number after the rough showing from the injured Patriots offensive line. This was the line we lost last week due to Harris getting injured and where Stephenson came in and only went for 11/23 to ruin the stats of the bad Houston defense.
Harris is another runningback in an amazing matchup but hasn't produced over this number much this season. Mainly due to the bad offensive line for the Steelers. The Steelers rank third-worst with 1.11 yards before first contact. Going up against the third-worst run defense allowing 2.10 yards before first contact. Harris only went over once last week where he had over 20 carries for the first time in his career. Luckily for Harris, he is going up against a defense that has allowed 100 rushing yards in all but one game this season. That game was week one where they also did not allow a 300-yard passer. This has led to the Seahawks being on pace for allowing the most total yards per game in NFL history. Expect with Juju out and Ben looking 80 years old for Harris to explode. DK did not have Total yards for Harris but if it under 100 yards prop I would pound that over but I'm expecting it to be 110.5 at least.