Joey's NFL Prop Ticket Week 7
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another week of my NFL Prop Ticket Article. In this article, I will break down my top 5 props of the week. Last week, we were able to hit 4 out of 5 of our props with the only miss being Robby Anderson and his four drops. Let's see if we can go 5-0 this weekend, we just need to break through that gap for the undefeated weekend! To gain access to the rest of my prop bets join our discord for FREE by going to dfskarma.com/chat or clicking the link above. With another week in the books, this leads us into week 7 of the NFL season, or as many have called it; byemageddon. Teams on a bye include Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and Pittsburgh Steelers. There is a lot of fantasy and prop betting players I like to target so we will have to make an adjustment this week. We continue in the sweet spot of prop betting outside of dealing with the bye weeks. As you could tell based on the last two articles, these middle weeks, 5-12, are where I see my biggest profits. On top of my free play, click the link to get access to all our premium tools on our site. Top props have been fantastic this year. If you locked in all the A- or better props you would be up 16.85 units if you bet one unit on plus money props and to win one unit on minus money props. It has a record of 110-74 (59.8% hit rate)
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All props are to win 1 unit!
With Zach Ertz out and Dallas Goedert potentially out for the Eagles, it would make sense to load up on DeVonta Smith. Smith is leading the team in air yards % (39%) and target share (24%). The two TEs make up for 25% of the targets and 32% of the air yards on the team. Last week against Tampa Bay the Bucs were not able to get much done as Hurts finished with 115 passing yards with their main production on offense coming on two huge 50 yard DPI calls flipping the field and resulting in redzone opportunities and scores each time. If they don’t end up getting those DPI calls I am not sure if the Eagles even score that game. Smith ended up finishing with two receptions and 31 yards on four targets. This was Smith’s third-worst performance of his rookie year. As you can tell he is extremely boom or bust, going for 70+ in half his games and going for fewer than 31 yards in the other half of his games.
He gets matched up against Casey Hayward this week who has been amazing this season and making his case for the best cornerback in the league. This should not come as a huge surprise as he was a top 10 cornerback for the majority of his career. This season he has taken the extra leap into the elite tier and is someone you should avoid targeting all season. The Raiders defense starts up front. The Raiders rank first in the league with a 34% pressure rate, this may cause trouble as the Eagles allow the 7th highest pressure rate on the season at 28%. Out of 30 qualifying QBs Hurts ranks, 27th in completion % under pressure at 39.1%. Hayward did not allow a yard in the first two weeks of the season while dropping back into coverage 77 times he allowed 5 targets but no receptions. It was not until week 3 he started allowing receivers to catch the ball. This has resulted in only 0.37 yards per route covered this season, the third-best in the league. Last week was the first week someone was able to do relatively well against him. He has allowed 87 yards on the season and 48 came last week against the Broncos. Hayward leads the league by only allowing a reception every 26.3 snaps and a target every 11.3.
Derrick Henry has been fantastic this season. Racking up over 100 yards in five straight games with one week one dud game. Henry's 130.5 rushing yards per game would rank him 6th all-time and most since 2012 when Adrian Peterson had 131.1 rushing yards per game during his 2012 MVP campaign. Normally these rushers have been a lot more efficient. Henry actually is on pace to have the most rushing attempts per game in NFL history. He is currently leading that race with 27 per game. With the record standing currently at 26 per game. Many analysts in the preseason assumed that Henry's production would falter due to game script. While that notion was logical that has not been the case this season since the Titans have not found themselves trailing but that much too often this season. Week one was the only time where the Titans ended up losing by a large margin and Henry still had 17 carries but even then his usage was still high with 4 targets.
The Chiefs have been giving up a ton of rushing yards to start the season. Their 133 yards per game allowed ranks 27th in the league while they only rank 16th with 25 attempts allowed per game. If they stay on that average and allow Henry 25 or more rushing attempts that would lead to 120 rushing yards based on Henry's 4.83 yards per carry average on the season. The Chiefs are allowing the fourth-most yards before contact in the league this season. This could spell trouble for the Chiefs as they will be consistently letting Henry get to the second level of their defense. This means they will have their cornerbacks and safeties trying to tackle Derrick Henry on a good percentage of his rushing attempts. Leading to potential huge breakout runs. Henry currently leads the league with 19 runs for more than 10 yards and 9 runs for more than 15 yards.
Henderson's name has not been tossed around much this season as a top running back, but he has been quietly putting together a great season. Henderson is currently 9th in the league with 74.4 rushing yards per game. While also getting the 10th most carries in the league with 16 a game, he is only 2 carries away from cracking the top 5. Henderson has been consistent but has actually never gone over this total this season. He has between 70 and 82 rushing yards in four of his five games this season. If you see rushing attempts prop later in the day, let me know I am curious what they set it at.
This play is a combination of a poor run defense and game script. The Rams are currently 16 points favorites, this will mark the 10th time this season a team has been favored by double-digit points. With most of those double-digit favorites playing either the Texans or the Lions. The Lions have given up 100 yards to an individual running back three times this season, with last week giving up 94 yards to Joe Mixon. Weeks two and three they did not give up a 100-yard rusher as the Ravens use Lamar Jackson too much and the game was down to the wire. The Packers just had too many short fields in the second half while only having three long drives in the first half. Also, you know Rodgers likes to run the score up on his divisional opponents as he threw for 4 touchdowns.
Ridley has not jumped off the up paper as a top WR this season but he has quietly excelled. After the horrible week one showing for the Falcons. Ridley has put up double-digit targets in every game since then and has seen his targets trend upwards every game this season. Starting with 8 targets in week one to coming off a 13-target game in week four before the London trip he did not attend. This has led him to two weeks off of football to rest up and become fully healthy. Even though he has not been injured, two weeks off is a huge help to get your body right. Ridley’s air yards have not fully transferred over to his fantasy production yet. He is currently second in the league with a 47% air yards share. Ridley ranks 5th worst with a 0.56 RACR with a minimum of 400 air yards to qualify. This means he has only converted 56% of his air yards in actual yards. This shows breakout potential for him and how his yards should correct themselves to a higher average per game the rest of the season.
Keep an eye on the Dolphins injury report this week. If Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are to miss another week, Calvin Ridley could be in store for a huge week against some backup corners. Last week we saw Trevor Lawrence post his first 300-yard passing game of the season against these backups and I expect Ryan to emulate that success. Even with them in the lineup expect Ridley to have breakout potential as the Dolphins have allowed nine WRs to go for more than 70 yards this season.
This is going to be another play where I am following game script. If you thought the Rams spread was large, the Cardinals are favored by 18.5 against the Texans this week. Also, guess what? Even though the Lions have a poor run defense, the Texan's run defense is even worse. This makes up for the inflated line as James Conner has only gone over this total once this season and that was last week against the Browns where they were leading by three touchdowns a majority of the game. Last week, Conner saw 16 carries for 71 yards, this marked his third time this season he saw 15+ carries and I expect that to carry over to this game as well.
The Texans are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game, giving up 141.3 yards per game and 166.3 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games. The Cardinals run the ball at a 67% rate in the second half with the lead on first and second down. In the fourth quarter with a 10 point lead or more, the Cardinals ran the ball 88% of the time. We saw what happened in that Rams' game late in the fourth with the lead and that was with the Rams having a great run defense. They took the ball on an 11-play, 99-yard drive and never once passed it to seal that game. Milking the clock for 9 minutes as the time ticked down from the 12-minute mark, down to the 3-minute mark, icing that game leading to a 37-20 victory. Expect a run-heavy game plan for the Cardinals in the second half as they play the worst run defense in the league based on yards before first contact. They top the charts giving up 2.5 yards before first contact.