NBA Player Prop Prediction - Brandon Ingram (11/26/21)
What is up Karma Nation! With the NBA in full swing, I will now be introducing my prop predictions article for the NBA and the NFL. Last week, we were screwed with Malcolm Brogdon over 5.5 rebounds but we are here again this week to see what edges we can find tonight.
My first step in the research process is taking a look at how Vegas is projecting these games. Where the high-scoring games are and where the low-scoring games are. You must be aware of one thing for NBA props if you are betting an over in a game that could blow out. Games I normally avoid are ones that have a double-digit spread. Usually, those are the ones with a higher chance of a blowout. Honestly, any game can blow out. All it takes is a hot-shooting third quarter from one team and a cold-shooting third quarter for another team for these games to get out of hand. That is the issue with living and dying by the 3 which teams are more likely to do nowadays. Even the best scorers can miss wide-open shots, in some games, your shot just isn’t falling and defense doesn’t matter.
Highest total: Lakers vs Kings 229.5
Lowest Total: Clippers vs Pistons 205.5
Highest Spread: Jazz (-13.5) vs Pelicans
Brandon Ingram over 3.5 Assists -108 1.08 units to win 1 unit:
Ingram has looked fantastic this season and he is someone I have been playing props on for a majority of the season. It always seems like they have been under projecting him all season for some reason. This is someone who has gone over this assist mark in eight of the last nine games. The one miss was the last game where they blew out Washington. Leading to Ingram resting a majority of the 4th quarter.
According to our top props page, which is a premium tool at Betkarma.com, he is projected for 4.53 assists leading to an A+ rating.
Ingram has really progressed as a passer this season and has entered the conversation as one of the top point forwards in the league. He is averaging 4.5 assists per game which ranks 9th among starting forwards. In turn, this has led to Ingram averaging 8.8 potential assists per game. Normally I aim for around a 50% potential assist to assist ratio and he falls right in line with that.
Tonight, he doesn’t get a great matchup but still is attackable. The Jazz rank 20th in pace and 8th in defensive rating. The Jazz do allow bottom half in the league field goal attempts per game and field goals made per game. This is due to the lack of shooting fouls they commit. They are only allowing 19 FTs per game which is the 10th least in the league. With teams not getting to the line that leads to more assist opportunities for opposing offenses.
As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state.
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