NFL Prop Predictions for Week 12 - Saquan Barkley and More
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another week of my NFL Prop Ticket Article. In this article, I will break down my top 5 props of the week. We have an exciting week 12 on our hands. There is plenty of solid matchups and mispriced props this week to take advantage of. To gain access to the rest of my prop bets join our discord for FREE by going to dfskarma.com/chat or clicking the link above. We continue in the sweet spot of prop betting outside of dealing with the bye weeks. As you could tell based on the last two articles, these middle weeks, 5-12, are where I see my biggest profits. On top of my free play, click the link to get access to all our premium tools on our site. Top props have been fantastic this year. If you locked in all the A- or better props you would be up 14.12 units if you bet one unit on plus money props and to win one unit on minus money props. It has a record of 138-98 (58.4% hit rate).
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Coleman comes in as one of our Top Props of the slate as part of your premium membership at betkarma.com. Tevin Coleman gets two huge bumps this week. First, he gets an amazing matchup against the Houston Texans. As well as getting a huge bump in volume with breakout rookie Michael Carter Jr sidelined up to a month with an ankle injury. This will give Coleman plenty of opportunities to command a heavy usage in the run game against a poor run defense this week.
Coleman has yet to go over this number this season but that is mainly to his lack of carries. He has yet to run the ball 10 or more times in a game and has only run the ball more than 5 times once this season. On the year he is averaging 3.93 yards per attempt. That means in an average game he needs to carry the ball just 10 times to go over. Without the help of Michael Carter for the Jets, this should be achievable. Even if he does not run 10+ times, which he should, he has an elite matchup to be efficient enough with his carries to reach this over. The Houston Texans are allowing the most yards before contact in the league with 2.37 yards before first contact. They are one of three teams that allow this absurdly high number. Due to these high yards before first contact, they rank third in rushing yards allowed at 133.5 yards per game.
On Prizepicks he is down at 33.5 Rushing yards
Dan Arnold is someone that has been popping up on my radar the last couple of weeks, but after a dud from him last week I have decided to jump on board with him. Since DJ Chark went down with an injury in week 4, Arnold is averaging 4 receptions and 47.7 receiving yards per game. This coming with a 0 yard 0 target game last week. If we exclude last week, he is averaging 57.2 yards and 5 receptions on 7.6 targets per game. Going over every week but one. To add to the injury bug for the Jaguars, they will now be without Jamal Agnew. Another player taking up a large target share for them. Except for another uptick for Arnold this week.
This week the Jaguars get a nice matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Although the Falcons are giving up just 48.8 yards per game to TEs, which ranks 21st, they have let a TE go over his rec yards total in 7 straight weeks. Including 48+ yards in all those games.
On Prizepicks he is down at 33.5 Rec yards
Fournette is another player that comes in as one of our Top Props of the slate as part of your premium membership at betkarma.com. This is a prop that I have been playing for a couple of weeks straight. They have been using Fournette more and more in the passing game recently. I expect that to continue as we know Brady loves his running backs in the passing game as we saw in New England all those years. Fournette is averaging 32.3 rec yards and 4.4 receptions on 5.4 targets per game. He has only had fewer than 20 rec yards twice this season.
The Bucs get a matchup against the Colts who have been hot in recent weeks. So I am not expecting a blowout win for the Bucs, which is when he usually goes under. The Colts have only allowed 41.5 rec yards per game to running backs this season. This is because they have not faced a ton of backs that are heavily used in the passing game like Fournette is, which is why we can't blindly follow RB receiving trends. Taking a look at RBs that have at least 10 rushing attempts against the Colts. Eight RBs qualify, five of them went for 26+ rec yards. Two of them were Elijah Mitchell and Derick Henry who are not very involved in the passing game, so that was not unexpected, they received 0 targets combined between the two of them. The other under was Mark Ingram when he was on the Texans, they lost 31-3 and the RBs combined for 5 receptions and 37 yards on 7 targets. All these factors point to a great game for Fournette.
On Prizepicks he is also at 26.5 Rec yards
These next two props do not show up as top props but I love them this week. Can’t let the data do everything for you. Engram comes into this game not showing much this season. He has only appeared in eight games this season averaging 3.5 receptions and 29.5 yards on 5.1 targets per game. He has only gone over this total in three of those eight games as well. Although, he has looked better without Sterling Shepard on the field. In the three games with Shepard, he went under this total in all three games while still seeing 5 targets a game. In the five games without Shepard, he is averaging 4 receptions per game going over this total in 3 out of 5 games. The two unders coming in his two most recent games when Jones had only 15 completions in one game and against the Bucs where he did have five targets, he just couldn’t haul them in.
The Giants will be going up against the Eagles this week. This is a perfect get-right spot for him as the Eagles love giving up short underneath throws. This falls right in line with Engram and the Giants' plan of attack to get him the ball. This is why I chose receptions compared to yards. The Eagles are allowing far and away the most receptions to TEs this season. They have allowed 81 targets this season, with the next closest being 67. This coming with similar targets but with the passes to TEs being so easy due to quick underneath routes. This comes with a much higher catch %.
Prizepicks has Engram at 3.5 as well
Barkley is another player not on the top props list but should thrive against this Eagles defense who, as I mentioned above, love to give up short underneath passes to TEs, RBs, and slot WRs. With Shepard confirmed out this has led me to jump on the Barkley and Engram bus this week. Although, unlike Engram, Barkley has had success in the passing game this season. Barkley has seen at least three targets in all full games this season. The first two weeks they struggled to get him involved in the passing game but after that, he had at least six targets in every game and went over 3.5 receptions in all those games as well. In his first game back in primetime last week, Barkley ran a route just shy of 50% of Jones’ dropbacks. He ran a route on 60% of his snaps played as well.
Just like I mentioned with the Eagles earlier with Engram. Look to target short underneath passes against this team. They will limit the outside receivers who like to play deep and let you have all the dumpoffs you want. This is why the Eagles also rank second in the league in allowing running back targets per game. Allowing just shy of seven receptions per game to running backs.
Prizepicks has Barkley at 3.5 as well